Analysis from political science professors Kenneth Bickers of Colorado University (CU)-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver actually gives Romney the win with 330. Their analysis has been applied to all presidential elections back to 1980 and have accurately reflected the actual results of those contests. Their model gives New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania to Romney, which I give to Obama...an additional 44 Electoral votes.
I believe that the anti-Obama vote has the most motivation...and the more people see of Romney, the more they like him. In July, Gallup reported that Democratic voting enthusiasm is down sharply from the 2004 and 2008 election cycles. In October, Forbes reported that one of Obama's biggest challenges was voter apathy. The Forbes article points to analysis by NBC's Chuck Todd that showed "an ‘across the board’ advantage for Republicans in the enthusiasm race."
No one should take any of this for granted though. It is highly dependent on voter turn out. So, if you care about the future of your country:
GET OUT AND VOTE!
