Beware the Next Big Crisis

With President Obama’s approval ratings continuing to slip (he has gone into the negative range with -11 Approval Index according to Rasmussen), 53% of voters opposing the Democratic health care reform, and the Blue Dog Democrats revolting in the in the House, we may be moving toward gridlock. This is the best outcome we can hope for between now and the 2010 mid-term elections. Gridlock could stop the Obama administration from raising taxes, co-opting private industries and increasing the national debt to record levels…or worse.

But how will President Obama deal with gridlock? He has already tried taking his case to the people with an unprecedented media blitz over the last months. This has not seemed to work. It seems like the more he has talked, the more his numbers have gone down. He recently tried shame the Republicans when he said the following on a weekly radio address, “Now I know there are those who are urging us to delay reform. And some of them have actually admitted that this is a tactic designed to stop any reform at all. Some have even suggested that, regardless of its merits, health care reform should be stopped as a way to inflict political damage on my Administration. I’ll leave it to them to explain that to the American people.”

What will come next? Will he simply accept the will of the people and Congress? Will he acquiesce to gridlock? Or, will he resort to more extreme measures to force his will on the country. After all, President Obama sees himself as a transformative force. In a speech just before the election he said, “We are five days away from fundamentally transforming the United States of America.” What will he be willing to do to bring about his vision of change?

Throughout history fascists, socialists, progressives, and communists (hereafter referred to as Leftists) have used crisis to bypass standard operating modes and enact their programs that they cannot get executed before the crisis. As Jonah Goldberg puts it in his book Liberal Fascism, “Crisis is routinely identified as a core mechanism of fascism because it short circuits debate and democratic deliberation. Hence all fascistic movements commit considerable energy to prolonging a heightened state of emergency.”

Hitler used the economic crisis of post-war Germany to gain power, scapegoating the Jews as the cause of suffering. And in this country, Woodrow Wilson used World War I as an excuse to move America into a wartime “Progressive” dictatorship that nationalized industry under the War Industries Board, shut down dissent by denying mailing rights to any publications that spoke out against him, launched a huge propaganda machine and using goon squads from the American Vigilante Patrol to crack down on “seditious street oratory.”

Modern Leftists have been floating a new crisis on a regular basis. It seems like everything is a crisis or epidemic these days…banking, global warming, health care, the environment, bird flu, swine flu, etc., etc., etc. The left has had a measure of success with these crises. Americans have, by and large, believed the rhetoric and given in to allow more and more regulation of their freedoms.

President Obama, however, does not seem to be willing to accept the incrementalism of the past. He has already made sweeping change and proposed even more. But as his poll numbers drop and he loses political capital, will he, like so many before him use or create a new crisis to bypass democracy? And, if the many crises that have been used in recent years have not been enough to convince people to give up their liberty, what will it take…and how far will the current government be willing to go?

When the next big crisis hits, think about what you are willing to lose to allow the government to “fix” the problem. Also remember what Benjamin Franklin said, “They that can give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.” And John Adams, “But a Constitution of Government once changed from Freedom, can never be restored. Liberty, once lost, is lost forever.”

California: Welcome to the Real World

After years of out of control spending and tax hikes that chased many prominent companies to other states, California officials announced Monday that they will be pushing to pass a budget plan that includes significant cuts and financial restructuring to close the $26 Billion shortfall in the current budget.

It had to happen eventually. Even California, the land of Hollywood fantasy, had to come to reality sometime. Of course it took standing on the edge of bankruptcy and collapse to get here, being reduced to issuing IOUs to thousands of state contractors, but there’s no use rushing into things.

This is what happens in the real world to American families and businesses that can’t just raise taxes to continue growing their spending. Out here, where we are constrained by income growth that has slowed and higher costs, we have to tighten our belts, cut out some things and bring our spending into line with the reality of our financial situation. So, California, welcome to reality…welcome to my world.

Maybe if California can learn, the federal government can learn also? So far there seems to be little sign that the dominate party has any desire or plans to curtail their spending. In fact, the opposite is true. President Obama has expanded our deficit by trillions of dollars and isn’t done yet. What will it take? Complete collapse? Come on, Mr. President, Ms. Pelosi, and Mr. Reid, come on out here with the rest of us in our world…in reality. It’s really not so bad, and it’s a whole lot less scary than the bizzaro world in which you live.

Centralized Economies and the Arrogance of Power

In reading through the transcripts of President Obama’s recent speech to the NAACP Centennial Convention, I was mostly impressed. He eloquently summarized the struggles of blacks to overcome what was undoubtedly cruel and discriminatory treatment of the past. He recalled the days of Jim Crow laws, lynchings, and segregation and how the founding of the NAACP was a beginning of change that carried through to Dr. King, “Freedom Rides; taking seats at Greensboro lunch counters; and registering voters in rural Mississippi.”

“Because of what they did, we are a more perfect union. Because Jim Crow laws were overturned, black CEOs today run Fortune 500 companies. Because civil rights laws were passed, black mayors, governors, and Members of Congress serve in places where they might once have been unable to vote. And because ordinary people made the civil rights movement their own, I made a trip to Springfield a couple years ago - where Lincoln once lived, and race riots once raged - and began the journey that has led me here tonight as the 44th President of the United States of America.”

President Obama also acknowledged “the remarkable achievements of the past one hundred years,” and the “extraordinary progress that cannot be denied.” He also exhorted the African American community to do their part:

“But all these innovative programs and expanded opportunities will not, in and of themselves, make a difference if each of us, as parents and as community leaders, fail to do our part by encouraging excellence in our children. Government programs alone won't get our children to the Promised Land. We need a new mindset, a new set of attitudes - because one of the most durable and destructive legacies of discrimination is the way that we have internalized a sense of limitation; how so many in our community have come to expect so little of ourselves.”

All in all a good and inspiring speech. But, what also jumped out at me from the mid section of this oratory, as he listed the current struggles of the African American community, including lower educational achievements, higher incarceration and unemployment rates, was this troubling sentence:

“But our task of reducing these structural inequalities has been made more difficult by the state, and structure, of the broader economy; an economy fueled by a cycle of boom and bust; an economy built not on a rock, but sand.”

To me, this is a direct indictment against the free-market economy that has built the United States to the most powerful engine of opportunity the world has ever known. President Obama sees this as an economy “built on sand” because of what he sees as its “cycle of boom and bust.”

So, we ask ourselves, what is the alternative? Rather than an economy built on the innovation spurred by competition in a market where people are free to create whole new segments of the economy that never existed before…or equally, fail due to lack of innovation, or productivity…what would take us off these shifting sands and onto bedrock in President Obama’s mind? Well, I think he believes that the solution is a Planned or Centralized Economy where all aspects of the economy are controlled by a central government. This reasoning permeates his rhetoric and agenda from the bail-out and control of the banks and automobile industry, to the “public option” for health care to the cure for the plight of African Americans. Barack Obama believes that the good people in the government bureaucracy can do a better job at managing the economy than the people running companies.

Liberals, Progressives, Socialists, Fascists always arrogantly believe that though it may never have succeeded before, they can make a centralized economy work. They never look at the root cause of past failures, they just believe that success was elusive because enough wasn’t done or the right people weren’t in charge…and they, of course, are the right people. It didn’t work for the Soviet Union, once heralded by American Progressives as the model for the economy of the future…It hasn’t worked for China, who has had to incrementally move toward more free-market and democratic reforms over the years. And, it has never worked in the United States.

Every time the U.S. government seeks to control markets or the economy, it has detrimental affects. It is strongly believed by some economists today that the government’s response to a recession actually moved the country into The Depression and lengthened the downturn. Jimmy Carter’s policies lead to high interest rates, hyper-inflation and rampant unemployment. Today’s banking crisis is a direct effect of Democratic meddling in the financial industry, coercing, intimidating, and downright threatening banks to change their lending practices and make loans to those who were previously considered bad risks.

Centralized bureaucracies have never and can never succeed in directing a healthy economy because their decisions are based on political issues that consolidate and expand their power rather on the cold hard facts of supply, demand, productivity, risk and reward that corporations in a free-market economy must balance. If a central planning initiative is not working, they simply throw more control, more bureaucracy at the problem. In some ways, corporations seek the same thing, to consolidate and expand their position in the market…but this is done through providing better, cheaper, faster products. Bureaucracy’s product is control, manipulation and patronage.

So, back to the troubles of today’s African American community. Does President Obama truly believe that he is the one who can solve these problems with more government after more than 45 years of Great Society policies and expenditures have apparently not worked? In fact, it is many of these policies that have failed the African American community. Large inner-city communities like Detroit, and Washington D.C. to name two, who suffer the worst of all from the problems have been controlled by Democrats for decades and the violence and frequency of crime have steadily increased. Welfare pays people not to work and incentivizes them to have babies outside of wedlock. Affirmative Action tells people that they don’t have to be as smart or as good as the other guy…they just have to show up. These and more are all products of past Progressive government.

As Mr. Obama just offers us more of the same, does he arrogantly believe that he is better able to implement these policies than his predecessors? Or, does he know it won’t work as advertised…and the end game is not making the economy work for everyone, but gaining and keeping control. Either way is very frightening.

What's the Rush? - Follow-up

As if to highlight my point, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) yesterday announced that the current Obamacare legislation would raise federal health care costs"to a significant degree" while not reducing health care costs in general.

Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican Leader in the Senate said "Today's CBO testimony should be a wake-up call. Instead of rushing through one expensive proposal after another, we should take the time we need to get things right -- especially at a time when hundreds of thousands of Americans are losing jobs every month."

I believe more and more that this has nothing to do what-so-ever with providing quality, affordable health care...and everything to do with controlling one-sixth of the economy and more of our lives.

What's the Rush?

President Obama and the Democrats are almost apoplectic in their desire to rush pending Health Care legislation through to completion. These new regulations would control approximately one-sixth the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the U. S. economy which, according to several sources, was between $2.2 to 2.4 trillion in 2007 and expected to rise by nearly 7% in 2008.

In a speech from the Rose Garden today (7/15/09), the President attempted to push lawmakers by saying, “Deferring reform is nothing more than defending the status quo -- and those who would oppose our efforts should take a hard look at just what it is that they're defending.” But why would any rational person who was truly concerned for the well being of the citizens of this country want to rush through legislation that could affect such a large portion of the economy? Mistakes made here could be devastating to millions of people who need health care. Additionally, anything that adversely affects such a large portion of the economy can affect the economy as a whole...please see Housing Crisis for example. Wouldn’t it make sense that an issue of such gravity be handled in a careful, deliberative manner, taking all views into account and drawing from expert opinions from every side of the issue?

According to polling done by the Gallup organization passing Health Care reform is important to 56% of Americans…a majority, but by no means an overwhelming majority. The issues surrounding health care are complicated and many. By large majorities, Americans say that they want to be able to have any test or treatment their doctor deems necessary (93%)…Choose any doctor or hospital (88%)…Have option to keep their current health plan (77%). At the same time, they want to have coverage regardless of employment or health status (86%), and to have health care more affordable (83%). These issues are not all easily reconciled, balancing them will take time.

The President and the Democrats trot out all of the normal, emotionally charged statistics to back their claim that we are in a health care crisis. Particularly they point to the last U.S. Census data that shows that nearly 47 million were uninsured as of the 2006 census. Taken at face value, this seems like terrible thing, but once the data is broken down you begin to see a different picture. For example, 10.2 million of this number is made up of non-citizens. 8.3 million are between 18 – 24 years old, a group that typically chooses not to spend their money on insurances. Another interesting group is the 9.2 million with household incomes of $75,000/year or above. Now that number does not seem nearly as tragic, does it.

What in the history of the Federal Government or the career of Barack Obama recommends them to be able to run health care any better than the private sector? I submit that, in fact, the opposite result is indicated. Government never has to compete…if they fail; they just raise taxes or print more money. More Americans (45%) trust doctors and hospitals to address the problems than either the Democrats (33%) or Republicans (10%). Beyond the trust issue, the Federal Government has long been known as a paragon of inefficiency. While large corporations can have their own level of bureaucracy, they seldom pay $2,000 for a toilet seat or hammer. Companies are responsible to their stock holders and must compete against other companies to survive…unless they are a bank or auto manufacturer, I guess. The government mostly exists to further its own size and power.

With all of the things that have and can be said about the Health Care issue, my biggest question remains: What’s the rush? Why is it that not backing President Obama’s plan is defending the status quo? Why can’t there be a careful and measured approach to such an important issue? Unless, the true motives are something different than a concern for your health and well being.

Sources:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/121664/Majority-Favors-Healthcare-Reform-This-Year.aspx

http://www.census.gov/prod/2007pubs/p60-233.pdf

No Left Turn

A recent poll by the Gallup organization produced some very interesting, but to me not surprising, data. The results of the poll, released July 6th, 2009 (http://www.gallup.com/poll/121403/Special-Report-Ideologically-Moving.aspx), found that Americans “by a 2-to-1 margin, say their political views in recent years have become more conservative rather than more liberal.” While the specific policy questions are a bit of a mixed bag, the over-all result is that between 2004 and 2009, Americans have not moved to the Left politically, despite the unprecedented onslaught in the media to move public opinion in that direction.

If this is true, then what can explain the dramatic electoral shift since 2004? I believe that the results stem from a few basic causes: 1. The Democrats' ability to morph their message to take the most popular stance with their constituents. 2. The Republicans' capitulation and lack of a clear message that differentiates them. 3. Things have been too good for too long.

The Democrats have always positioned themselves as the champions of populist causes to gain and maintain power. Many times this populism has required them to shift positions over time and between constituencies. In the southern states during the 1950s and 60s, Democratic leaders were staunch segregationists, appealing to their bigoted white voters…Senator Robert Byrd (WV) was a leader in the Ku Klux Clan (KKK). As times changed and the Civil Rights Act of 1964 became law, Democrats quickly began to pander to the new Black voting block with entitlements such as welfare and Affirmative Action. Though it was the Republicans in Congress who joined together to send the Civil Rights Act to Democratic president Lyndon Johnson for approval, though Martian Luther King himself was a Republican, the Democratic Party was able to reinvent themselves as the friends of Black Americans and paint the Republicans as the bigots.

Added 7/14/09:

Matt Patterson has a great article on this subject: Barack Obama: Beneficiary of a GOP Legacy in Pajamas Media.

In recent years, with the advent of the 24 hour news cycle and the Internet, the Democrats have changed positions on a daily basis at times to appeal to the most current audience. When pressed on the flip-flops, they first tried parsing their words in true Clinton style (“It depends on what the meaning of ‘is’ is.”). This is illustrated in the 2004 election cycle by Sen. John Kerry who, when trying to balance between constituents who thought we should have gone to war in Iraq and those who didn’t, famously said “I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it.”

Lately, the democrats have just begun to deny that they even said what they were on record as saying. Then Senator Barack Obama at an AFL-CIO conference in June 2003 is on video tape as saying “I happen to be a proponent of single-payer universal healthcare coverage. That’s what I’d like to see.” Later, in a debate with Senator Hillary Clinton, he said, “I never said that we should try to go ahead and get single-payer (healthcare).” Getting away with this type of blatant reversal would never be possible without the willing participation of the national media. Before a flip has even flopped, the sycophantic media begins to spin the information in the Democrats favor by painting anyone who questions the change in stance as a bigot, homophobe, extremist, idiot…whatever they think they can make stick. The barrage against the questioner is incessant until the original question is lost in the murky water of the feeding frenzy. In this way, they get to have their cake and eat it to.

These Democratic tactics seem to have worked very well in cowing the Republicans into submission during the 2008 election cycle. Seemingly shell shocked, the republicans were unwilling to take up any position that may have been seen as negative toward their opponents for fear that they would be tarred and feathered by the press. Serious questions of the neophyte Senator Obama’s background, associations and qualifications were deemed off-limits by the John McCain campaign. Added to the lack of willingness to speak against his opponent, the fact that John McCain was notorious for “crossing the isle” and voting against his own party’s interests, left the Republican ticket with few strong supporters. Many conservatives refused to vote for McCain and stayed home…Others, like myself, held their noses and voted for him out of fear of the would-be policies of the demonstrable communist, Obama.

What the republicans needed was a strong ticket that stood against the slings and arrows of the media and articulated a clear and decisive stance in contrast to the big-government, tax-and-spend Democrats. Someone was also needed who was not afraid to question Obama’s associations with radical communists, black racists, felons, and domestic terrorists. These types of associations would not have been off-limits if they were on the Republican side.

But, these two issues alone did not swing the electorate toward the democrats; I believe that one of the most important factors was that this country has had things too good for too long. We have become spoiled. Even 9-11, with the ensuing years of economic down-turn, did little to change the life styles of most Americans. Yes, some lost their jobs for a time, but the over-all jobless rate and underlying economy remained relatively positive compared to past down-turns. People had come to trust that while they were hearing that it was so bad out there, someone would make sure that everything would turn out alright. People continued to by cars, homes, and toys that they could not afford by the fiscal standards of just a few short decades ago. Credit rates remained low, though few understood the artificial nature of this cheap money and its impending consequences.

Only in a time of sustained, relative bounty can the general population think it is a good idea to turn over more and more of their wealth and liberty to an increasingly socialist government. Of course we want children to have adequate health care…Why can’t people in other countries come here and get in on the good life style we have…Certainly we don’t want to ruin the environment. Since things have been so good, not many stopped to ask, “At what price?”…let alone “Is this even true?”

I believe that the hope for America is that the electorate will begin to wake up from their lovely dream when the policies of this out-of-control government begins to directly effect their life-style. “Saving the baby polar bears is all well and good, but I can’t afford my $4 cup of coffee any more.” As the Nixon/Ford administrations brought about the Carter Administration, so the gas lines and double-digit interest rates under Carter brought on the Regan revolution.

I think that the first two years of the Obama administration will unfortunately be so devastating to our economy and freedom that the democrats will be swept aside in the 2012 mid-term elections like they were in 1994 with the Gingrich revolution. This, however, requires that the Republicans begin to stand up now and oppose the current trends and offer a clear vision for a better way. Time is short.

The grass roots have begun to take action. Obama’s approval ratings continue to fall and Tea Parties have sprung up all over the country to protest against higher taxes and increased spending. Now, the question is… Where are the Republican leaders? Remember...we have really not made a Left turn.

What I believe – Politically

As a beginning to my blogging endeavor, however long that lasts, I thought it would be good to provide a baseline for my political beliefs. I will try to be succinct.

The Founding:

I believe the founding of the United States of America was accomplished by a diverse group of, in many cases, reluctant patriots. Men who would rather have continued to live out their private lives in peace were, however, compelled to action by the tyranny of the British Crown. These men, laying it all on the line, became traitors against their own country, the most powerful nation on earth, to throw off the shackles of injustice and create a new and better system of government. These were learned men who studied the classic writers of democracy and liberty. The Founding Fathers risked their lives, their fortunes and their sacred honor to the cause of Liberty.

The Constitution:

I believe the Constitution of the United States of America is THE bedrock document of our republic. This is not a “living document” in the sense that it can be interpreted differently by people of different times. It is the foundational law on which all federal law is based and must be followed as it was written and intended to maintain our freedom.

The Constitution is a timeless document that speaks to the essence of governmental power and the source of that power…We the People. If we leave it open to the whim of contemporary interpretation or allow it to become corrupted over time through judicial precedent, it loses its power to do what it was always intended to do…protect us from the power of an out-of-control central government. Just as heresies against the Christian faith begin with a corruption of the Bible, so the corruption of the Constitution is the beginning of political heresy.

The Federal Government:

The federal government is restricted by the constitution to a very narrow role in our lives. It has grown in power and influence through the design of power-hungry people and the neglect of the electorate. As centralized governments become more powerful, they have always become more corrupt. We must return to the Constitution as our base and limit the power of this juggernaut before it is too late…if it is not already too late.

State’s Rights:

I believe that the States have the right to resist the Federal Government when that body over steps its Constitutional bounds. I believe in the Tenth Amendment which says “The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.”

During the process of ratification, three states (New York, Virginia, and Rhode Island) asserted that, being sovereign states, they had the right to secede from the union. The common understanding at the time was that the United States of America was a confederation of sovereign states and not a monolithic government. This understanding was under attack from the beginning with big government advocates always pressing for more and more centralized power. Today, the tables have completely turned and the States are to the Federal government like mere counties are to the states.

Taxes:

We, those of us who pay taxes, pay way too much. We are worse than serfs, who only owed one quarter of their production to their feudal lords.

Race and Culture:

I am not a racist! In fact, I believe that Race is an artificial construct built on the most superficial of issues…appearance. I believe there is one race, the Human Race and though we have various differences in appearance, we are all created equal.

I am however a “culturist.” I do not believe that all cultures are created equal! A culture that stones women for talking to a man or a culture that is built around gang violence are not the same and are, yes I will say it, inferior to the Judeo-Christian Western Culture. Multi-culturalism that teaches that all cultures are equal is a pox on society!

Separation of Church and State:

The Constitution spells out that the government cannot create a state church, as Britian did with the Church of England. It does not say that those of religious belief, no matter what religion that is, cannot, through constitutionally proscribed methods, participate in government.

The Constitution also guarantees the free exercise and expression of religion. It in no way empowers government to limit religious expression or the display of religious symbols such as a manger scene or menorah.

The term “separation of church and state” is not found anywhere in the Constitution.

Republicans and Democrats:

Not much difference between these parties any more. In the last election a good friend of mine said that he was voting for the Democrat, John McCain…Obama he considered the Communist candidate.

Republicans need to return to their conservative roots. Back to the party who freed the slaves, who passed the Civil Rights Act of 1964 (even though they had strong opposition from the Democrats) and who defeated the Soviet Union and freed Eastern Europe from decades of oppression. They need to be the party of small government, low taxes, ethics and personal responsibility. Then people may be able to see a difference again and their message will resonate amongst the majority of the voting public.

Communism/Socialism:

Communism and Socialism has failed every time it has been tried…from the time of the Mayflower Compact until today. While their tenets sound enticing, they ignore basic human motivations. People must strive to better themselves or earn their own way or they become lazy and unmotivated. If you make everyone the same, no one will strive to succeed because there is no incentive. If you offer limited incentive, you will get limited success.

Communism and Socialism never makes any inroads without a perceived crisis or enemy. To these ends, Communist/Socialist leaders seek to exploit current crisis or invent new ones in order to get the people to turn over their freedom to them. Once the crisis is over, the people always begin to turn away from communism/socialism…unless it is too late and the central power is too firmly entrenched. Eventually, though, it will collapse in the weight of its own mediocracy.

The United States of America:

The United States of America has, to this point been the greatest experiment of human governance ever attempted on earth. It has by no means been perfect, but it has done more good for more people than any other country in the world at any time. It has raised the standard of living for much of the free world, fed the starving and freed the oppressed.

I love this country, with all its warts, and believe that it can remain great if only its people turn from the current path and return to the founding principles.

Oh say does that Star Spangled Banner yet wave o’er the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave?