A recent poll by the Gallup organization produced some very interesting, but to me not surprising, data. The results of the poll, released July 6th, 2009 (http://www.gallup.com/poll/121403/Special-Report-Ideologically-Moving.aspx), found that Americans “by a 2-to-1 margin, say their political views in recent years have become more conservative rather than more liberal.” While the specific policy questions are a bit of a mixed bag, the over-all result is that between 2004 and 2009, Americans have not moved to the Left politically, despite the unprecedented onslaught in the media to move public opinion in that direction.
If this is true, then what can explain the dramatic electoral shift since 2004? I believe that the results stem from a few basic causes: 1. The Democrats' ability to morph their message to take the most popular stance with their constituents. 2. The Republicans' capitulation and lack of a clear message that differentiates them. 3. Things have been too good for too long.
The Democrats have always positioned themselves as the champions of populist causes to gain and maintain power. Many times this populism has required them to shift positions over time and between constituencies. In the southern states during the 1950s and 60s, Democratic leaders were staunch segregationists, appealing to their bigoted white voters…Senator Robert Byrd (WV) was a leader in the Ku Klux Clan (KKK). As times changed and the Civil Rights Act of 1964 became law, Democrats quickly began to pander to the new Black voting block with entitlements such as welfare and Affirmative Action. Though it was the Republicans in Congress who joined together to send the Civil Rights Act to Democratic president Lyndon Johnson for approval, though Martian Luther King himself was a Republican, the Democratic Party was able to reinvent themselves as the friends of Black Americans and paint the Republicans as the bigots.
If this is true, then what can explain the dramatic electoral shift since 2004? I believe that the results stem from a few basic causes: 1. The Democrats' ability to morph their message to take the most popular stance with their constituents. 2. The Republicans' capitulation and lack of a clear message that differentiates them. 3. Things have been too good for too long.
The Democrats have always positioned themselves as the champions of populist causes to gain and maintain power. Many times this populism has required them to shift positions over time and between constituencies. In the southern states during the 1950s and 60s, Democratic leaders were staunch segregationists, appealing to their bigoted white voters…Senator Robert Byrd (WV) was a leader in the Ku Klux Clan (KKK). As times changed and the Civil Rights Act of 1964 became law, Democrats quickly began to pander to the new Black voting block with entitlements such as welfare and Affirmative Action. Though it was the Republicans in Congress who joined together to send the Civil Rights Act to Democratic president Lyndon Johnson for approval, though Martian Luther King himself was a Republican, the Democratic Party was able to reinvent themselves as the friends of Black Americans and paint the Republicans as the bigots.
Added 7/14/09:
Matt Patterson has a great article on this subject: Barack Obama: Beneficiary of a GOP Legacy in Pajamas Media.
In recent years, with the advent of the 24 hour news cycle and the Internet, the Democrats have changed positions on a daily basis at times to appeal to the most current audience. When pressed on the flip-flops, they first tried parsing their words in true Clinton style (“It depends on what the meaning of ‘is’ is.”). This is illustrated in the 2004 election cycle by Sen. John Kerry who, when trying to balance between constituents who thought we should have gone to war in Iraq and those who didn’t, famously said “I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it.”
Lately, the democrats have just begun to deny that they even said what they were on record as saying. Then Senator Barack Obama at an AFL-CIO conference in June 2003 is on video tape as saying “I happen to be a proponent of single-payer universal healthcare coverage. That’s what I’d like to see.” Later, in a debate with Senator Hillary Clinton, he said, “I never said that we should try to go ahead and get single-payer (healthcare).” Getting away with this type of blatant reversal would never be possible without the willing participation of the national media. Before a flip has even flopped, the sycophantic media begins to spin the information in the Democrats favor by painting anyone who questions the change in stance as a bigot, homophobe, extremist, idiot…whatever they think they can make stick. The barrage against the questioner is incessant until the original question is lost in the murky water of the feeding frenzy. In this way, they get to have their cake and eat it to.
These Democratic tactics seem to have worked very well in cowing the Republicans into submission during the 2008 election cycle. Seemingly shell shocked, the republicans were unwilling to take up any position that may have been seen as negative toward their opponents for fear that they would be tarred and feathered by the press. Serious questions of the neophyte Senator Obama’s background, associations and qualifications were deemed off-limits by the John McCain campaign. Added to the lack of willingness to speak against his opponent, the fact that John McCain was notorious for “crossing the isle” and voting against his own party’s interests, left the Republican ticket with few strong supporters. Many conservatives refused to vote for McCain and stayed home…Others, like myself, held their noses and voted for him out of fear of the would-be policies of the demonstrable communist, Obama.
What the republicans needed was a strong ticket that stood against the slings and arrows of the media and articulated a clear and decisive stance in contrast to the big-government, tax-and-spend Democrats. Someone was also needed who was not afraid to question Obama’s associations with radical communists, black racists, felons, and domestic terrorists. These types of associations would not have been off-limits if they were on the Republican side.
But, these two issues alone did not swing the electorate toward the democrats; I believe that one of the most important factors was that this country has had things too good for too long. We have become spoiled. Even 9-11, with the ensuing years of economic down-turn, did little to change the life styles of most Americans. Yes, some lost their jobs for a time, but the over-all jobless rate and underlying economy remained relatively positive compared to past down-turns. People had come to trust that while they were hearing that it was so bad out there, someone would make sure that everything would turn out alright. People continued to by cars, homes, and toys that they could not afford by the fiscal standards of just a few short decades ago. Credit rates remained low, though few understood the artificial nature of this cheap money and its impending consequences.
Only in a time of sustained, relative bounty can the general population think it is a good idea to turn over more and more of their wealth and liberty to an increasingly socialist government. Of course we want children to have adequate health care…Why can’t people in other countries come here and get in on the good life style we have…Certainly we don’t want to ruin the environment. Since things have been so good, not many stopped to ask, “At what price?”…let alone “Is this even true?”
I believe that the hope for America is that the electorate will begin to wake up from their lovely dream when the policies of this out-of-control government begins to directly effect their life-style. “Saving the baby polar bears is all well and good, but I can’t afford my $4 cup of coffee any more.” As the Nixon/Ford administrations brought about the Carter Administration, so the gas lines and double-digit interest rates under Carter brought on the Regan revolution.
I think that the first two years of the Obama administration will unfortunately be so devastating to our economy and freedom that the democrats will be swept aside in the 2012 mid-term elections like they were in 1994 with the Gingrich revolution. This, however, requires that the Republicans begin to stand up now and oppose the current trends and offer a clear vision for a better way. Time is short.
The grass roots have begun to take action. Obama’s approval ratings continue to fall and Tea Parties have sprung up all over the country to protest against higher taxes and increased spending. Now, the question is… Where are the Republican leaders? Remember...we have really not made a Left turn.
