Global Warming Skepticism

UPDATED: 6-23-11

As is apt to happen when I'm involved in a innocent Facebook thread, a recent post by a friend turned into a friendly debate...this time on global warming. I am surprised that after all that has been revealed about the whole "Climategate" scandal, anyone still believes that mankind has any significant impact on the climate...but many do still.  For me, the science is settled. 

What follows is my Facebook response with links to supporting information.  Note: I will admit when I am w... wwwrrr....  wronnnnn.... wrong.  (Fonzie impersonation).  The volcano example I have been using seems to be unsupported. I still stand by my over-all assertion: Anthropogenic Global Warming is a hoax.

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I am not a scientist and don't play one on TV. ;-). But I have paid pretty close attention to this whole thing for quite some time. When the theory of "man-made global warming" was first floated, I quickly dismissed it out of hand, in the beginning because of research I had read about a few years earlier. This research tested CO2 levels in polar ice. It showed that the planet has been going through heating and cooling cycles for thousands of years.

As the whole thing heated up, I read more and found out that while the temperature of Earth was rising...so was the global temperature of Mars. Last time I checked, there are no coal-fired electric plants or SUVs on Mars. There are many climate scientists who believe that solar activity has far more to do with global temperatures on earth that anything man could ever do...and the data from Mars would seem to back this hypothesis. The fact that global warming ended in 1998 [The East Anglia guy admits to it ending in 1995] also corresponds to a period of low solar activity.

There are also known, long-term ocean cycles that effect the climate...such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) that was in a cooling cycle from 1945 to 1977. In the 70's, climate alarmists were warning of the next coming ice age. So, what happened after the cooling cycle of the PDO...that's right, a warming cycle.

Additionally, while there has been some localized melting of glaciers, over-all, new data shows that the polar ice caps have NOT receded and we now know that the Michael Mann "hockey stick graph" is fatally flawed and that the models that were being used by the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, and others, cannot even come close to predicting actual weather of the past when known data is used. We have also found out that they fudged the numbers and then sought to cover it up.

So while no credible scientists deny that the earth warms, most, who do not have vested interests, see it as a part of natural cycles that man could not significantly effect if he tried. We know that one, decent sized volcanic eruption puts out more so-called greenhouse gas than the whole industrialized world puts out in a whole year  [Can't find source for this one...in fact, this argument seems to be untrue.  Although volcanoes do emit large amounts so-called green-house gasses, the yearly total is significantly less than human activity]...and there are typically a few eruptions a year...what is the real impact of man?

Yes, I am a skeptic. I have done some reading, and I believe the preponderance of evidence is against the "Man-Made Global Warming" theory. I also follow the money and power of these sorts of things. With pending cap-and-trade legislation, new so-called Green businesses and the U.N. pushing for more control of world wide economy to help avert the "crisis," I see the corrupting influences that are backing the movement. Those who speak out against it are swimming against the popular stream and have very little to gain, and in many cases, a lot to lose.

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Additional information that was not in the Facebook threads:

"Believe it or not, very little research has ever been funded to search for natural mechanisms of warming…it has simply been assumed that global warming is man-made. This assumption is rather easy for scientists since we do not have enough accurate global data for a long enough period of time to see whether there are natural warming mechanisms at work.

The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims that the only way they can get their computerized climate models to produce the observed warming is with anthropogenic (human-caused) pollution. But they’re not going to find something if they don’t search for it. More than one scientist has asked me, 'What else COULD it be?' Well, the answer to that takes a little digging… and as I show, one doesn’t have to dig very far." ~ Dr. Roy Spencer. PhD., a highly respected climate scientist.

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Newsmax.com reported in February of 2011 that a group of scientists blasted “climate alarmists who appear to be unaware of what is happening to our planet's climate," in an open letter in response to a report to congress made by those "alarmists."  The letter also asks if the recent reports “provide any real-world evidence of Earth's seas inundating coastal lowlands around the globe? No. Increased human mortality? No. Plant and animal extinctions? No. Declining vegetative productivity? No. More frequent and deadly coral bleaching? No. Marine life dissolving away in acidified oceans? No.

“Quite to the contrary, in fact, these reports provide extensive empirical evidence that these things are not happening. And in many of these areas, the referenced papers report finding just the opposite response to global warming, i.e., biosphere-friendly effects of rising temperatures and rising CO2 levels.”

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National Geographic reported in December 2007 that "after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: 'At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.'"

And yet, Antarctica still has over 162,000 Manhattans of ice remaining.  And, over the years, the freeze thaw cycles have remained fairly consistent.  It better start melting quick. 

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WHAT'S DOWN WITH THE SUN?

MAJOR DROP IN SOLAR ACTIVITY PREDICTED - 

"A missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles say that our Sun is heading for a rest period even as it is acting up for the first time in years, according to scientists at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL)."

"As the current sunspot cycle, Cycle 24, begins to ramp up toward maximum, independent studies of the solar interior, visible surface, and the corona indicate that the next 11-year solar sunspot cycle, Cycle 25, will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all."

"We are NOT predicting a mini-ice age. We are predicting the behavior of the solar cycle. In my opinion, it is a huge leap from that to an abrupt global cooling, since the connections between solar activity and climate are still very poorly understood. My understanding is that current calculations suggest only a 0.3 degree C decrease from a Maunder-like minimum, too small for an ice age. It is unfortunate that the global warming/cooling studies have become so politically polarizing."

The Ten Commandments of the Federal Government

The bureaucrats in the Federal Government seems to think of themselves as the all-powerful and uncontested rulers of  our lives.  This made me wonder, since they think of themselves as god-like, what would their version of the Ten Commandments be.  Here is my version of...

The Ten Commands of the Federal Government:

1. We are your Wise Overlords.  You shall have no governments before us...including those pesky States.

2. You shall not make for yourself any non-governmentally approved, unregulated or untaxed idols.

3. Do not use the name of the Lord!  It might offend somebody.

4. Remember tax day is April 15th and keep it holy...or else!

5. Honor your mom and dad...unless they are some kind of right-wing, wacko religious nuts or something.  Really, they don't always understand what is best...it takes a governmentally-sanctioned village to raise a child and properly indoctrinate...er, I mean...educate them these days.

6. You shall not kill...unless there's an inconvenient pregnancy involved. 

7. You shouldn't commit adultery...I mean, it's not nice...but hey, we're all human, right?  Consenting adults?  What can we do...we have our needs.  Just try to be a little discrete, huh?

8.You shall not steal!  Your government hates the competition. 

9. Don't bear false witness against your neighbor...unless they are some rich, spoiled lacrosse players, or some political rivals we don't like.

10. Don't covet your neighbor's wife...or stuff.  If he is unfairly taking more than his share of the goodies, we'll tax him out of existence...we got your back!


But, Mr. Government Official, what is the greatest commandment? 

Just remember this: Do what we say...when we say it...and nobody gets hurt.  All the other stuff is pretty much summed up by this commandment.

The Destruction of America

In the 1980s, Soviet defector and ex-KGB agent, Yuri Brezmenov warned of calculated and on-going subversive activities designed to destroy America.  This is just as former Soviet leader Nikita Kruschev told us they would do.

“We will take America without firing a shot...We will BURY YOU! We can’t expect the American People to jump from Capitalism to Communism, but we can assist their elected leaders in giving them small doses of Socialism, until they awaken one day to find that they have Communism. We do not have to invade the United States, we will destroy you from within.”

Brezmenov estimated that only "about 15% of time, money and manpower" was spent by the KGB on intelligence activities.  The bulk of their effort was spent on what was called "ideological subversion or active measures."  This was an attempt to "change the perception of reality of every American to such an extent that, despite the abundance of information, no one is able to come to sensible conclusions in the interest of defending themselves, their families, their community and their country."  Sounds like that would meet Kruschev's goals, doesn't it?

These "active measures" were designed as a slow, long-term process that was to be carried out in four major phases:

1. Demoralization - a 15 - 20 year process.  The minimum amount of time to educate one generation of Americans in Marxist/Leninist ideals.
2. Destabilation - 2-5 years. This phase attacks the economy, foreign relations, and defense systems.
3. Crisis - as little as 4-6 weeks. 
4. Normalization - A term used by the Soviets to describe the heavy-handed tactics the government would use to recover from crisis.

Brezmenov's opinion at the time was that "The Demoralization process in the United States is basically complete already."  He said that Marxist/Leninism ideology had been "pumped into the soft heads of at least three generations of American students...without being challenged or counter-balanced by the basic values of Americanism."

"The result, the result you can see.  Most of the people who graduated in the sixties, drop-outs or half-baked intellectuals are now occupying the positions of power in the government, civil service, business, mass media, educational systems.  You are stuck with them.  You can't get rid of them.  They are contaminated. They are programmed to think and react to certain stimuli in a certain pattern.  You cannot change their mind, even if you expose them to authentic information."

In this country, we have a long history of ignoring our enemies...even when they tell us what they are going to do in advance.  When Hitler announced his plans to carry out his "final solution" and annex Austria, Poland and other parts of Europe, we didn't believe him.  That wacky Adolph...such a kidder.  Peace in our time...Peace in our time.  We ignored, as we have seen, Kruschev's bold proclamations.  And today, we choose to ignore the Islamists when they tell us that they will wipe Israel from the face of the map and destroy America....LOL...what a crazy bunch of jokers.  What is even more disturbing than those who ignore these threats, is those in government, media and academia who try to actively deny or negate the threat.

Though the Soviet Union was unable to see the complete fruition of their decades-long "active measures," they certainly softened us up.  We are at such a state of politically-correct paralysis that we cannot even come to sensible conclusions in the interest of defending our country.  We harass and a assault children and old ladies in airport security lines...but we best not look askant at a Muslim or person of Middle-Eastern decent.  In the spirit of cooperation and fairness, we reach out to Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood, regardless of years and years of evidence of their murderous intentions, while telling Israel that they should contract their borders to pre-1967 lines...even if they can't properly defend themselves.  Those silly Iranians, Palestinians, Syrians, etc., they don't really mean any harm.  And now we embrace the so-called Arab Spring movement...a movement specifically designed to exploit our weak-minded political correctness.


Brezmenov's warning then is still applicable for today: "If people will fail to grasp the impending danger of that development, nothing ever can help the United States.  You may kiss goodbye to your freedoms...including freedoms to homosexuals, to prison inmates.  All this freedom will vanish in five seconds."

Watch Brezmenov in his own words below:

Part 1: 






Part 2:

Healthy Skepticism

"Skepticism, like chastity, should not be relinquished too readily." ~ George Santayana

"The logic of validation allows us to move between the two limits of dogmatism and skepticism." ~  Paul Ricoeur


Who can you believe these days?  Everybody seems to have an angle...some agenda behind what they say.  Once upon a time...yes, it kind of seems like a fairy tale now...people held truth, honesty and unbiased reporting of facts in high regard.  This seems to be a long-lost relic of the past in today's age of marketing, sound bites, political spin and pseudo-journalism.

Today, everyone seems just to accept, and even expect, that politicians of every stripe are spinning, slanting, or just plain lying about the facts.  We know that, regardless of party, our politicians are corrupted by the influences, trips, voting blocks, and campaign donations (read bribes) of the thousands and thousands of lobbyists and special-interest groups.  We know that these politicians tell us what they want us to hear...regardless of the facts...so that they can advance their (or rather their lobbyist's) agendas.  But even though we all seem to know this, a large number of Americans seem to trust government, as a whole, to do what is best for the public.


Sadly, this propensity to bend the truth to the requirements of an agenda has expanded in our society far beyond politics, as we typically think of it.  Scientific American recently reported that, "False positives and exaggerated results in peer-reviewed scientific studies have reached epidemic proportions in recent years. The problem is rampant in economics, the social sciences and even the natural sciences, but it is particularly egregious in biomedicine." 

We have all grown up in a world where science has accomplished amazing things.  We have come to think that with enough time and funding, science could solve all of the problems of the world and provide wondrous inventions to make our lives immeasurably better...and that's where the problem begins.  As Scientific American puts it:

"The problem begins with the public’s rising expectations of science. Being human, scientists are tempted to show that they know more than they do. The number of investigators—and the number of experiments, observations and analyses they produce—has also increased exponentially in many fields, but adequate safeguards against bias are lacking. Research is fragmented, competition is fierce and emphasis is often given to single studies instead of the big picture.

Much research is conducted for reasons other than the pursuit of truth. Conflicts of interest abound, and they influence outcomes. In health care, research is often performed at the behest of companies that have a large financial stake in the results. Even for academics, success often hinges on publishing positive findings. The oligopoly of high-impact journals also has a distorting effect on funding, academic careers and market shares. Industry tailors research agendas to suit its needs, which also shapes academic priorities, journal revenue and even public funding."

 Remember, the article says this trend is "epidemic" in the disciplines of "economics, the social sciences and even the natural sciences."  While they single out the influences on biomedicine  by  "companies that have a large financial stake," the case can also easily be made that government, and their seemingly endless supply of grant money, also exerts undue influence on the scientific process.  These "conflicts of interests" with the government are most probably the exact reason for the "false positives and exaggerated results" in the science of so-called man-made global warming, known as Climategate.  Remember, Al Gore told us that "the science is settled."  That's because his preferred science stood to make him millions and millions of dollars.  In economics, government has a vested interest in promoting models that support their continued expansion, central planning and out-of-control spending.  This is why there seems to be no end to the number of economists who will say that Stimulus spending and increasing debt is a good thing...despite the historical evidence.  And similarly in social science, government wants research that shows that their Great Society programs do indeed work, regardless of what you think you see in the inner-cities.

Just as we should always maintain a healthy skepticism about the claims of miracle cures, fast weight loss products or hair restoration creams, we should be that much more skeptical of government-backed scientific findings.  While buying an ineffectual sexual enhancement supplement may be personally very disappointing, buying government's science-backed solutions can threaten the very liberty on which our country is founded.  So, look closely at what you are being told.  Check for past results.  Does the proposal square with what we have seen in the past?  As the article says:

"First, we must routinely demand robust and extensive external validation—in the form of additional studies—for any report that claims to have found something new. Many fields pay little attention to the need for replication or do it sparingly and haphazardly. Second, scientific reports should take into account the number of analyses that have been conducted, which would tend to downplay false positives."

 Skepticism is a very healthy attribute. It keeps us from falling prey to snake oil salesmen, charlatans and tyrants.  Don't blindly believe what your government, or so-called scientists tell you.  Make sure you understand the implications of their proposals.  Try to discern the hidden agendas...and dearly guard your liberties. 

"Guard with jealous attention the public liberty.  Suspect every one who approaches that jewel." ~ Patrick Henry

The End of the World and Other Non-Disasters

We have recently been treated to a media circus surrounding the doomsday predictions of an 89-year-old wacko preacher, Harold Camping.  Camping predicted that the world would end on May 21, 2011 at 6:00 PM...That's six o'clock in what ever time zone you happen to live...you see it was going to start in Fiji and work its way around the globe hour by hour.  The fact that he was wrong when he predicted the end of the world in 1994, or was wrong this time, doesn't seem to deter him from claiming that his math was just a little off.  The new doomsday is now set for October..mark your calendars.

All but a few of his faithful followers knew Camping was a crackpot.  I mean, come on...everyone knows the world is not going to explode until the end of 2012.  The Mayans told us that...geez.  But while we have all had fun at the expense of  the poor, deluded old preacher Camping...well, maybe not so poor since millions of dollars in donations poured in...we continue to give credence to other doomsday crackpots.  Take for example the horrible predictions surrounding last years Deep Water Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.  Why this was to be the mother of all disasters.  Life as we know it in the whole Gulf region would be gravely changed for decades, and decades.  This was just the proof the environmentalists needed to show once-and-for-all that big oil meant big trouble for planet earth.  Why we may never recover from the tens-of-millions of barrels of crude oil spilled into the waters of the Gulf...we will be lucky if the whole ocean doesn't die from this.

Well, just as with crazy ol' Camping, these prophets of disaster were wrong...spectacularly wrong.  As Humberto Fontova reports in the Washington Times, the would-be devastation...never was.  Just a short three months after the spill, marine scientist Ivor van Heerden said, "There’s just no data to suggest this is an environmental disaster...we’re not seeing catastrophic impacts. There’s a lot of hype, but no evidence to justify it.”  Take the time to read the article, its worth it.

At the beginning of the spill, I tried to tell my Facebook friends that, while this was not a good thing, the earth has a tremendous ability to "heal itself" of these sorts of impacts.  The vastness of the oceans, I said, would disperse the oil.  I pointed out that oil is a natural product of the earth's processes and that it seeps out, unaided by man, all the time.  I reminded them of similar predictions in the past and how wrong they had been: 

• The Exxon Valdez site was almost as if nothing ever happened in a year or two.
• The Alaska pipeline not only didn't kill off the wildlife, but actually helped increase the caribou population.
• The late Carl Sagan's predictions in 1990 that if Saddam Hussein set the oil wells on fire we could see a miniature nuclear winter.  The oil wells burned and...well...Sagan was wrong.
• In the early 1970s the environmentalists were predicting a coming ice age...now "the planet has a fever."

And on, and on , and on.  I predicted that within a year, we wouldn't hardly be able to see the impact.  I was wrong...it was much quicker than that.

These prognosticators of peril never seem to be correct...and yet, we continue to listen to them.  We laugh at the followers of preacher Camping and castigate them as a bunch of rubes...but we allow the enviro-vangelists to set our national energy policies and determine allowable uses of our land.  Both Camping and the enviro-wackos have long track records of being wrong, which begs the question, who are the real rubes?

When will we see these charlatans for what they are?  When will we treat them with the same humorous disdain that we reserve for the likes of Camping?  Wrong is wrong.  At least Camping only had limited ability to bilk people of their money.  The environmental lobby has almost unlimited power through their hold on government.