China's Strangle Hold on High-Tech Manufacturing

 

Why is China so dominate in high-tech manufacturing?  Is it because of cheap labor?  No.  It is because the West has ceded the Rare Earths market to them, and now they demand that manufacturing gets done in their country. Rare Earth elements are vital in the creation of high-tech electronics from smart phones and computers to defense industry.

The United States and other western powers must rebuild our Rare Earths capabilities, or be held hostage to the whims of the communist government of China.

Here are two videos that lay out the issues:

COVID-19: The New York Problem

I'm not sure exactly what to make of the chart below, but it is very interesting.  This chart shows the total number of reported COVID-19 deaths in all fifty states plus D.C., sorted by population (as of 4/17/20).

As this shows, New York, the fourth most populous state, is an outlier in the country.  And, from what we know, it is particularly New York City where the vast majority of reported deaths have happened.  The next highest number of deaths, New Jersey, NYC's closest neighbor is only 22% of that of New York.  California, the most populous state, is at only 6% that of New York.

Yes, there are sound reasons why New York would have the highest numbers.  While the state is the fourth most populous, New York City (8.2 million) is the most populous city in the country, by far.  The next closest city, Los Angeles is only 49% the size, and not nearly as dense.  But, should New York be this far out of the average?  

Maybe, but lets examine some theoretical possibilities.  Maybe it is because there are so many flights that come to New York from China, where the virus started.  That is why there was so much worry about Washington (state) and California early on, but they are at 4% and 6% of New York deaths.  Maybe everyone else has just done a much better job in limiting the spread of the virus?  I can't believe this is true.

We know, and I covered in a previous post, that the number of deaths have been very liberally counted...I would say over reported.  Could it be that some of the difference is due to a higher level of over-reporting?  Maybe.  As was reported in The Telegraph, Italy now says that only 12% of the deaths reported as caused by COVID-19, were actually caused by the virus.  How much over-reporting in New York?  We can't be sure yet, but let's say, because of the density of  NYC, that their real numbers are up to 25% of reported.  That would be 4282 deaths, still the highest in the country, but seems much more in line.  Regardless of the percentages, I think this whole subject needs to be closely examined...starting now.  This is very important data to have correct when you are making decisions on locking down the economy.

So, what can we do with this data?  Well, if we are going to shut down any economies, maybe we should just do it to New York, and maybe, New York City in particular.   If you break down the number of deaths, you will see that:

• 20 states have under 100 deaths
• 32 states are under 200 deaths
• 43 are under 1000

But maybe this isn't the right metric, due to the relative populations.  So what if we look at Deaths/1M Population?  This is a much better way to view the effect on a given population. If we look at it this way, 43 states are under 100 deaths per million in population.  New York is at 873 per million.  So maybe we lock down the states that are over 100 deaths per million in population?

Regardless of how you look at it, New York is an extreme outlier and we should make it a priority to find out why.  We should also not make policy for the whole country based on New York.  In many types of analysis, you take outliers like this and throw them out because you don't want to make decisions based on the extremes.  If we do have an over-reporting issue in a few states, and those states are locked down when others aren't, I would imagine that they would get their numbers corrected quickly.

As I have said before, and I blame this as much on the Trump administration as on the over-hyping of the media and the Democrats, but I repeat myself (as Andrew Klavan says).  There are not only two choices...SHUT DOWN or WE ALL DIE.  We need much better leadership at all levels than we are getting.  There needs to be more subtly in our response.  This should not be viewed as one size fits all.

#CriticalThinking  #QuestionPower 

EDIT 4/27/20: A new study by MIT economist Jeffery Harris suggests that one of the big causes of such high numbers in NYC may be the subway system.  This article by Reason.com provides an overview of the findings.

COVID-19 Update: 4/4/20

Perspective: The Worldometer site, the one that has been publishing the COVID-19 statistics, added one yesterday - Tests/1M Population.

As of the close of the day yesterday 2,110/1M Population had been tested in the US. With a population of ~329,671,200. That means that approximately 695,606 tests have been done in the US. That is 0.21% of the population.

It also means that only 39.84% of those tested have actually shown to be positive. This number is likely skewed high, and maybe significantly so, for general population exposure since most of the testing is being done for people who have symptoms or who suspect that they have been exposed.  Many who think they may have it are being denied testing and just told to self-quarantine, because their symptoms are not serious enough.

What does this all mean? Well, all the figures being touted for mortality rate, for example, are just guesses based on extrapolations from a very small sample of the population.

It also means that the Total Number of Cases figure means almost nothing. This is just a factor of how many who have been tested. But the news media keeps hyping this number. "The US has now surpassed Italy in the number of cases!" So what? The more significant number is how many have died in proportion to the population. Italy is at about 243 total deaths/1M in population. The US is at about 22 per 1M.

Chart as of close of day 4/3/20

I believe this is why the CDC does not publish "Mortality Rate" numbers for flu and pneumonia. There's no way to know unless they actually test a much larger sample of population.

Let's also remember that only between 2.1% and 2.6% of those known Active Cases are Serious (hospitalized) or Critical (ICU)... and only a percentage of Critical (I heard one doctor say about half) are in need of ventilators at some point.

Let's just all keep perspective and look past the hype to try to understand what the true numbers are...what they really mean...and what they don't tell us.

COVID-19 Update: 3-31-20

The reason I post these updates is to help keep COVID-19 in perspective.  There is an increasing number of experts and observers coming out who are questioning the need for such economy-crushing measures to  fight a virus who's death toll is lower than seasonal influenza.  Then there is this video, where a doctor on the front lines of the outbreak in New York City says that says that avoiding the disease is easy.  Dr. Price says:

“The ways that you get this is the transmission of the virus almost exclusively from your hands to your face, from your hands to your face and inside your eyes, into your nose or into your mouth...”

“Become a hand Nazi. Everything you know about your hands, just keep it clean and you will not get this disease...”

“That is incredibly empowering. The thing that makes me smile a little bit is I actually know now that I won’t get this disease because I know how to protect myself...”

With President Trump's declaration yesterday that the lock-downs will remain in place until at least April 30th, it is probably too late to save the economy from serious recession, but maybe we can learn a lesson about perspective and critical thinking from this debacle. 

Now to the numbers:

Looking at the closing numbers from 3/30/20, the ratios are staying pretty constant.

The percentage of active cases that are Serious/Critical are hovering between 2.1% and 2.6%, which means >97% are categorized "Mild."  This does not mean fun, but it means that there is no need for hospitalization.  These cases can be treated at home with normal flu type treatments of rest, hydration and treatment for fevers.

Compare these numbers to Influenza deaths in the chart below.  2020 Influenza deaths are through week 11 of the year.

Anatomy of a Panic

UPDATE:  Just to be clear, when I speak of COVID not being as bad as other flu epidemics, I'm talking about the number of deaths.  That is the bottom chart on this page.  And, the vast majority of cases, by the reported numbers, worldwide and in the US, are MILD.  I understand that this does not mean fun.

While the statistics, and some very distinguished experts are saying that COV-19 is not as bad as other, seasonal flu epidemics...that the recovery rate is good...that those at risk of death are basically the same as any other flu seasons (the elderly and those with preexisting medical conditions), why does it seem like politicians, companies, schools, sports teams, etc. are completely in support of the extreme measure of shutting down the economy?  That HAS TO MEAN that it really is bad, right?

Well in my opinion, NO!  How, then, did this happen?  Here’s how I see it:

RATINGS:  The 24/7 news media loves this stuff.  They live for panics, catastrophes, and other mayhem, because it brings them big ratings.  It makes the individual reporters and talking heads feel important.  We have seen this many times before, and they don’t care who they hurt, as long as they get their ratings.  That’s the start of it.

This is not all of media, of course.  Many in media are just like many in the general public, unfortunately, they just uncritically pass along what they are being told.  What makes even most of these followers so bad, though, is that they have to play up what they are repeating, by using grim tones, and looking very serious...for their own ratings.

POLITICS: It is an election year.  The press HATES President Trump.  That’s the next part.  They have been using this issue, like other panics (real or manufactured), to blame it on Trump.  To claim that he is not properly responding to the latest likely apocalypse.  You know, like they tried to blame Hurricane Katrina on President Bush.

Then Trump’s political rivals chime in...they have to make the panic big so they can make the blame big.  The most important thing to politicians is getting their power...and they, like the press, don’t care who they hurt.

Now the lower tiers of politicians have to get into the act to prove that they are on top of things.  So Governors, County Executives, and Mayors, all have to go on TV to show that they are taking proper actions. They don’t want anyone to blame them for improper response, you know, just in case any of this is true.

Then other institutions...universities, and the schools, heaven forbid one of their students gets the virus, even though it’s milder than other forms of flu for the vast majority of people.  They would be crucified by the parents.

SNOWBALL EFFECT:  Now, the momentum is large enough that, even though the epidemic is already on the down swing in China, where it began...even though the statistics show it’s not that bad, compared to other common outbreaks...it’s too late.  The snowball is rolling down hill too fast to stop it now.  Now cities are canceling parades...sports leagues are canceling seasons...businesses are canceling all travel and expanding work from home.  Because they don’t want to be seen as uncaring or ineffectual.

The majority of people are now fully invested in the narrative.  They call for government to "save them."  They want more and more strict actions to make sure they don't get this horrible "novel virus."  And the snowball grows...and the snowball moves faster...and the snowball destroys what's in its path.

PERSPECTIVE: Is COVID-19 a pandemic?  Yes, of course it is.  But that just means that it has spread around the world, not that it is the zombie apocalypse.  Have people died?  Yes, unfortunately.  But this happens EVERY flu season.  Can the virus become particularly nasty? Yes...like many strains of Influenza.  Should you wash your hands and avoid other sick people?  Of course.  Should we even take unusual actions to protect the most vulnerable, like those in nursing homes, and those with other high-risk factors?  Yes, those people should take precautions and probably practice an appropriate amount of isolation.

But should we panic?  Absolutely not.  This thing is way overblown.  Hospitals are becoming
overwhelmed, not by a horrible pestilence, but by panicked overreaction.

How can I say this?  Because the numbers are clear.  Looking at the numbers being published from all over the world, the vast majority of those who get the virus have MILD symptoms (94.57%) to those with SERIOUS/CRITICAL (5.43%).  Similar in the US (MILD-97.53%; SERIOUS/CRITICAL-2.47%).  But, I hear what some of you are saying..."What about Italy, smart guy?  It is horrible over there.  We could be just weeks...or days behind them."  Italy is having a bad time of it, but they have the oldest population on the oldest continent in the world.  This is the most vulnerable group.   Italy (MILD-94.38%; SERIOUS/CRITICAL-5.62%)

There are, at the writing of this post, 99,908 active cases in the US.  2,463 are SERIOUS/CRITICAL.  This is across the whole country.  In general, Serious means hospitalized...Critical means in the ICU.  We are not given the percentages between these categories.

Certainly there are higher concentrations of active cases in more populous areas, like New York City.  But at 2,436  SERIOUS/CRITICAL cases in the whole country, how is it that the US Healthcare System is in danger of being overwhelmed?  In fact, hospitals around the country are furloughing people because of the lock-down.  They just don't have the patients.  If some hospitals are overwhelmed, is it from serious cases, or from panicked people clogging the ERs because they have some kind of symptoms and have been scared by the hype.  Would they have even called their doctor this time last year for the same symptoms?  We're not being told those statistics, but refer back to 97.53% MILD from above.

Do some searching on the Internet.  You will find dire predictions from past flu seasons also.  You will also find isolated areas where a hospital or two were being overwhelmed.  But we never locked down the country...even with past "novel viruses."

Businesses will lose billions of dollars.  The stock market is tanked.  Jobs are already being lost...because, like every few years, there’s a new virus strain.  This one just happened to take off quickly in a region of China, and we are at peak media frenzy.

Additionally, this:

"British scientist Neil Ferguson ignited the world’s drastic response to the novel Wuhan coronavirus when he published the bombshell report predicting 2.2 million Americans and more than half a million Brits would be killed. After both the U.S. and U.K. governments effectively shut down their citizens and economies, Ferguson is walking back his doomsday scenarios."

"But after tens of thousands of restaurants, bars, and businesses closed, Ferguson is now retracting his modeling, saying he feels “reasonably confident” our health care system can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in a few weeks. Testifying before the U.K.’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology on Wednesday, Ferguson said he now predicts U.K. deaths from the disease will not exceed 20,000, and could be much lower."

You may disagree, but that’s how I see it. Just my opinion.  That and four bucks will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks.  But, I just don't see a lot of critical thinking around this subject.  Those experts who are making the case for more reasonable response and lack of panic are being drowned out by the noise.

"A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it." ~ Agent K, Men In Black

COVID-19 Update: 3-27-20

Not much change in the proportions.  This is the kind of comparisons we need to keep this in prospective.

2020 Influenza totals are for only the first 10 weeks of the year.

COVID-19 Update: 3-25-20

Okay, tell me why our health care system is supposedly being overwhelmed, if not for panic?  With only 1,175 "Serious, Critical" active cases in the US, I don't know for sure, but my guess is that if all of these were in New York City, they would probably be able to handle them...if not in the city, I'm sure in the Greater New York area.

Even across the world, it is tracking with similar proportions.  Although, the ratio of total cases to active cases seems to be wider.  Does this mean we have seen the world-wide peak?  Time will tell on this, I guess.  But, if we have, it would track very similarly to Influenza time frames.

COVID-19 Update: 3/24/2020

2020 Influenza numbers are for the first 10 weeks of the year only.  COVID-19 numbers are total. 

COVID-19 in Perspective

I have been making the case that the COVID-19 Pandemic should be kept in perspective with other epidemics.  I spent some time looking at statistics and here's what I've found.

While many people are claiming that COVID-19 is particularly devastating, if you compare it to Influenza, it clearly is not even close.  I pulled the current statistics for COVID-19 here, and downloaded a table from the CDC here to get the summary in the tables below.

As these statistics show, Influenza causes way more deaths every year in the US than COVID-19 has any signs of showing so far.  In fact the COVID-19 death rate in the US is currently only about 0.15 deaths per 100,000 in population.  This compared to Influenza in just the first 10 weeks of 2020 where the rate is 1.31 per 100,000.

Additionally, if you look at death rates for Influenza in 2018, you see that these rates jumped all the way up to 4.43 per 100,000.  With 14,510 deaths that year, it was nearly as high as the current COVID-ID deaths world-wide.  I doubt that many outside the health field even remember that 2018 was a particularly bad year for the flu.

While it is relatively early in the COVID-19 cycle, the numbers seem quite low in comparison.  Remember, the 2020 Influenza  deaths are for only the first ten weeks of the year, where the COVID numbers are total for this outbreak.

We are, at the time of this writing, in week 13 of 2020.  The COVID numbers will surely go up...but so will the Influenza numbers.  According to the CDC table, the Influenza deaths start dropping off rather quickly from here...bottoming out at about week 21 - 23.  Many expect COVID-19 to follow a similar trajectory. Chart below shows Influenza deaths.  Notice the large spike in 2018.

With numbers like these, does it make sense to be taking the extreme measures we now are seeing?  Steps that by all accounts, Republican and Democrats agree, will certainly cause significant damage to the economy. Estimates are that the recession could be significantly worse than we had in 2008, with 20% unemployment, and cost over $1T in government bailouts.  What happens next year, or the year after when another bad flu season comes along?  Can we afford these kinds of actions from our overzealous politicians?

This data was easily found.  It is from reputable sources.  Don't take my word, look for yourselves.

“Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.” ~  Benjamin Franklin

Are You Really "Red Pilled?"

A lot of people, especially conservatives, are using the red pill/blue pill plot device of the 1999 movie The Matrix as a metaphor for political awakening in today's world. In this movie, Keanu Reeves' character, Neo, is confronted by a mysterious man named Morpheus, played by Lawrence Fishburne. 

Morpheus offers to show Neo the "truth" that we are all living our lives in a computer-based simulation called The Matrix.  He says that , "It is the world that has been pulled over your eyes to blind you from the truth."  He further explains that the truth is, "That you are a slave, Neo. Like everyone else, you were born into bondage. Born into a prison that you cannot smell or taste or touch. A prison for your mind."

Morpheus then offers Neo two pills...a red pill and a blue pill.  "You take the blue pill, the story ends; you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe."  But if, "You take the red pill, you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes."

Of course, Neo takes the red pill, or we wouldn't have had much of a movie.  His eyes are opened to the truth.  He can finally see what the world really is.

The metaphor is typically used to talk about how people on the Left have had their eyes opened to the fact that they have been lied to all these years about the Democratic Party's true motivations.  That the Democrats have been using race relations not to make lives better for minorities, but have actually fomented racial tension to accrue power for themselves.  That they really don't care about "the working man."  That, in general, everything that comes out of their mouth, and much of what comes out of the propaganda mainstream media, are lies.  And these people have believed it all these years.  It's like they took the red pill one day and woke up from a dream to see the truth.

As it goes, it is a pretty good metaphor.  We certainly are being lied to all the time.  In recent years, it has become blatant, though the masses still can't see it.  But even in the past it was true.  As Winston Churchill tells us, "History is written by the victors."   He went on to say that, "History will be kind to me for I intend to write it."  Then he did.  It is much like the concept from Orwell's novel 1984...history is what the state, or accepted dogma of whatever flavor, tells you it is.  And, for most of us, we are fed that approved truth in state-controlled schools that preach...er, ah...teach the party line.  It is no wonder most people cannot see the "real truth."  But you can't blame the schools, they are just purpose-built programs that perform the function for which they were created.

The problem with the metaphor, as currently used, is that it does not go far enough.  Those who consider themselves "red pilled," many times are only seeing part of the truth.  They #WalkAway from the Democrats, but walk toward the Republicans.  What they fail to see is that the Republicans are also just a part of the Matrix.  You see, even the supposed good program in the story, the program called the Oracle, was part of the Matrix.  While the Oracle was better than the program Smith, "she" never meant to help Neo destroy the Matrix, but just to reboot it...so that it would continue.

Don't get me wrong, I believe the Republican party is better than the Democratic party...but only marginally.  Both still exist to perpetuate the Matrix...their power structure.  I believe that in reality, while there are some "true believers" within the parties, for the most part, they only exist to provide a contrast.  This contrast is "the world that has been pulled over your eyes to blind you from the truth."  It makes you think you have choice...that you have power.  The parties also keep us divided.  They give us things to hate about the others.  As long as we hate "them" and believe "our guys" are on our side, we pose no threat to the order of things.

So let's look at this a little closer.  The Republicans purport to be for small government.  But in fact, every year, for more than the past 100 years, the Matrix has grown, spending has gone up, more control has been exerted...regardless of which party has "control."  Oh yes, there have been insignificant tax cuts that seemed positive...for a time.  But in fact, they were just mortgaging your future by increasing spending with borrowed money, or by devaluing your money by printing more currency.  

When the Republicans have had power...when they could have taken steps toward real change...what did they do?  Nothing.  They continued to perpetuate the Matrix. Oh, they made noise about how they were going to do something...yep, we're getting ready to, they assured us.  But then just excuses about how they, in the end, couldn't really do what they promised...you know, because of those other guys...or because of the children...or because of our allies...or etc..

Let me show you some more truth about the parties.  What have we been taught about our system of government?  Well one thing is that the so-called "Two-Party System" is sacrosanct...handed down by the founders from Mount Rushmore, or something.  Why, it is the very bedrock of our democracy!  But why?  A reading of the history of the founding of our country shows no such system was codified in either our founding documents or the ratifying debates.  In fact, when parties began to form, many saw it as a dangerous thing for the republic...and I agree.  But since then, they have ingrained this system in our culture...in our psyches.  We are warned not to vote for any of those crazy third-party weirdos.  Why you'll just be wasting your vote!  Those other guys, the ones you REALLY dislike will win if you don't vote for "our guys."  They have rigged the system so that only the Republicans and Democrats can really succeed by the way the voting system is set up.  There are guaranteed slots for the two "respectable" parties, after-all.  But why?  Why does it have to be two?  Why do we have to give these parties so much power over us?  Matrix.

I haven't even touched on the Military-Industrial Complex that President Eisenhower warned us about...or the massive surveillance state...or the constant move toward global hegemony...the increasing social experimentation.  And so much more.

What if I told you that you can never really be red-pilled unless you see the whole the truth.  Unless you see that the system, the entire Matrix, is set up to perpetuate itself.  And, an "R" after someone's name does not change this fact.  But you have to be willing to see it...to take the real red pill.  Only then can actual change be considered

"Remember, all I'm offering is the truth. Nothing more." ~ Morpheus

An Open Letter to Gun Grabbers

Dear Democrats, Progressives, Socialists, and Gun Grabbers of all flavors:

I'd like to know, what about “the RIGHT of THE PEOPLE...SHALL NOT BE INFRINGED “ in the 2nd Amendment you are missing.

Look, nobody wants the kind of shooting we just had in Parkland, FL...NOBODY...not even the hated NRA. If you think, however, that more gun laws will help avoid future Parkland-like incidents, think about Chicago. They have the most restrictive gun laws in the country and on any given weekend there can be as many shot and murdered as there were in Parkland...month after month.  This is a cultural problem that will not be solved by gun bans.  Your proscriptions will only infringe the rights of law abiding citizens and provide no real solutions.

The 2nd Amendment to the United States Constitution does not confer the right to keep and bear arms...it acknowledges this preexisting right and denies the central government the ability to infringe upon it.  The amendment is not meant for hunters or sportsmen...this would have been an absolute ludicrous concept for the signers.  Just about everyone at the time of it's adoption either hunted or relied on hunting for some of their food source.  It is not even about individual right to defend oneself, though this is also a foregone assumption and a preexisting right.  Rather, the 2nd Amendment, the very next statement in the Bill of Rights after the freedom speech and religion, was meant to allow The People (corporate) to defend themselves..."a well regulated militia."  And, by the way, for a militia, an AR-15 is exactly the kind of weapon you would want. Who do you think was on the minds of the ratifiers of this amendment?  Well, the tyrannical central government they had just spent their blood and sacred  honor to free themselves of.

The 2nd Amendment to the United States Constitution does not confer the right to keep and bear arms...it acknowledges this preexisting right and denies the central government the ability to infringe upon it.

I know most of you don't want to be bothered with facts and statistics. I know for many of you, how you feel about it is all the proof you need. I also know that for some of you...those behind the scenes...those who have transformed our culture over the last 50+ years so that we have no respect for life, so many of our teens are on anti-depressants, so there is nothing (except guns, being a Christian or a white male) that is taboo...I know that for you, this is about disarming the sheeple. You are the enemy that we need militias to guard against. You are the “enemies, foreign and domestic” that our officials...and our military men and women...swear to protect us from.

I hear you saying, “Oh, that's just a lot of paranoid fantasy brought on from watching too many movies.” But I say, the whole history of the world proves you wrong. Large, centralized states move toward control and tyranny more often than not. But, in your magnanimity, you say, “Okay, even if that were true,”patting me on the head, “what do you think a bunch of rednecks with guns can do against the might of a modern military power? You would have no chance anyway, so give up your guns...for the children.” To which I would have to point you to the cave-dwelling Afghani civilians who thwarted the two most powerful empires of modern times, the USSR and the USA.

The United States of America was founded on the Rule of Law, and the bedrock of Federal Law is the Constitution.  This document is a list of limited and specific powers given to the central government, and to make sure this was understood, we have the 10th Amendment:

"The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the states respectively, or to the people."

 You see, it doesn't matter how you feel about guns.  The RIGHT to keep and bear arms is a preexisting right that has been acknowledged and codified in the bedrock Law of the Land.  You don't get to change it through social media, through protests, through crying on TV.  We all want to avoid another Parkland.  But let's look for real solutions.  I know, I know...that's too hard.  Blaming the guns is just easy, and convenient.  But if you really care, like you say you do, let's ask the important questions, like:  Why are all the mass shooters on psychiatric drugs?  Why are so many gun deaths involved with the prohibition of recreational drugs?  Why has our culture become so narcissistic that we would rather discard life than be inconvenienced?    The answer to these questions, and many more about our culture, will go much farther toward protecting our children than taking guns from law abiding citizens.

And, one more thing...If the government can deny my long-held right to arms, it can deny your right to free speech, or assembly, or the right to be protected from unlawful searches.  If they are allowed to do it to me...they can do it to you.  The Left used to understand this.

 “They that can give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.” ~ Benjamin Franklin

“But a Constitution of Government once changed from Freedom, can never be restored. Liberty, once lost, is lost forever.” ~  John Adams, 

THE Energy Solution - Thorium

Thorium as an energy source seems to be the correct answer to everyone's energy requirements.  It provides clean, abundant energy without any CO2 production.  It is a steady source of power unlike solar and wind.  It is a byproduct of other, desirable activity.  Thorium energy production should appeal to the most ardent environmentalist as well as the staunchest capitalist.  It is a boon for consumers, the poor and the rich alike.  This seems to be a win-win-win-win solution...unless you are invested in other power technologies or the military-industrial complex.

I'm not a physicist, and I don't play one on TV, but I have known about the benefits of Thoruim-based power plants for a few years now through research I've done on-line.  This obviously does not make me an expert, but I have attempted to pull together some resources for your own research.

Here are some highlights of the issues:

Thorium is a chemical element with symbol Th and atomic number 90. A radioactiveactinide metal, thorium is one of only two significantly radioactive elements that still occur naturally in large quantities as a primordial element (the other being uranium).

• Thorium is very abundant, "In every cubic meter of soil, you have one gram of thorium." Salim Zwein.  
• Thorium is four times more abundant than uranium.
• Thorium is hundreds of times more energy dense than uranium.
• Thorium is six million times more energy dense than coal.

Thorium is extremely safe.  "You can walk around with it in your pocket."

"There are so many things in our economy, that we deal with every day, that are measurably a hundred, a thousand, even a million times more dangerous." ~ John Kutch.

Thorium reactors are known as "walk-away" safe.  This means that if, in the event of a failure of the reactor system, a natural disaster such as what happened in Fukushima Japan with the tsunami,or for any other reason, the reactor can just shut down and everyone can walk away safely, without fear of fallout.

"It can't blow up.  It's not under pressure.  It burns 99% of it's fuel.  It can reduce existing nuclear waste. Normal operation range is between seven and eight hundred C.  This is where you can create miracles." ~ Jim Kennedy

"Wait," I can hear you saying,  "This can't be true.  If this thorium thing was this good," you say,  "we would certainly be using it.  Right?"  Well, as with many other potentially good things in this world, our government bureaucrats, crony-capitalists, and ne'er-do-wells of all sorts have, conspired, bungled, and botched their way into setting aside this technology and burying it for fifty years.

Is this science fiction, fantasy, unproven theory?  None of the above.

"We want people to know this is real, and that our government has done this...They ran it for 22,000 hours.  That's five years." ~ Jim Kennedy.

  In fact, a liquid fluoride thorium reactor was built in 1964 and became operational between '65 to '69 at the Oakridge National Laboratory in Tennessee. The director of the laboratory, Alvin Weinberg, was fired for his advocacy of this safer alternative to the type of light-water reactors that he had designed and patented.  Why would they do this?  You see, thorium reactors do not produce plutonium as a byproduct, and as Jim Kennedy explains, "The government wanted reactors that would create both energy and materials for weapon production."  Kennedy further explains that:

"The Department of Energy...60% of their budget is dedicated to creating, maintaining, and doing research on nuclear weapons.  They're not trying to figure out how to get oil from sands.  That's not their primary business."

 So, the Military-Industrial Complex that President Eisenhower warned us about in his 1961 farewell speech, rears it's ugly head once more.  Why would we ever allow these people to be in charge of our domestic energy policies...and in-turn have such a huge influence on our economy?

Another benefit of using thorium would be to reestablish a domestic rare earth mining industry.  In the infinite wisdom of government bureaucracy (oxymoron intended), rare earth production in the United States has been regulated nearly out of existence.  Rare earth materials are a vital ingredients in nearly all high-technology products made today.  But, since thorium is a low-grade radioactive element, and is a byproduct of mining the rare earth deposits, we have allowed China to corner a market that the United States once dominated, and, there by, made ourselves reliant on China for the elements and much of the manufacturing of products like cell phones and other high-tech components.

China has also made the development of thorium power a goal so that they can own the intellectual property (IP) rights  (patents).  This would mean that if we did begin building thorium reactors, we would have to pay licensing fees to China for technology that we developed 50 years ago.

For these reasons, and others, we should demand that our government removes the barriers to the development of this technology.  I have provided links to interesting videos on the subject below.  At least take a look at the first one.  it gives a basic overview.  I have also provided additional links to other resources.









Links:
Thorium Energy Alliance
Energy from Thorium

Thorium fuel cycle — Potential benefits and challenges ( IAEA-TECDOC-1450; pdf)

Myths You Probably Believe

"It ain't what people know that causes trouble...it's what they know that ain't so."

It is an interesting phenomenon to me how people can hold so tightly, fiercely even, to beliefs for which they have no basis for belief to which they can point, other than they have just always believed them, or it's what they have been told, or in many cases, they just want to believe them.  Wanting something to be true, however, does not make it true.  Being told they are true also does not make them true...and when it comes to truth, unfortunately, there is no safety in numbers.  Just because "everybody knows" something to be true, also does not automatically make it so.  It has been proven over and over that "the masses" can easily be fooled.

Belief in some myths are harmless and even a little bit fun.  Believing in Bigfoot or a nocturnal, molar-collecting sprite is harmless.  But particularly disturbing to me are the myths people cling to about government...many of which I have believed myself in the past.  These myths are troubling because they are created and perpetuated by the very government system that are the topics of the myths.  The very people who wish to wield power and control over our lives have, through government controlled schools, a sycophantic press, and bold face lies spread falsehoods about their own effectiveness, good intentions and indispensability, all in an effort to create a compliant citizenry who will never question their power or actions.

My path to recovering the truth, I am a recovering Neo-Con, began with simply being open to question my own beliefs and through reading history.  I began to see that much of what I thought I knew was, in fact, distortions at best and in many cases, complete fabrications.  I saw that it is not a matter of party, Republican or Democrat, since they were just two sides of the same coin.  Both parties, on the whole, are populated by statist, central-planning power mongers.  It was not even a matter of Right and Left, for many things I once believed as a rightist neo-con, I now reject.  It is, rather, a matter of truth and fact vs. myth and lies.  It is a struggle between liberty and tyranny.

In the video below from a 1977 lecture, Milton Friedman lays out five widely believed, and never-the-less false myths about government.  Are you open to truth?  Can you get past your own closely held myths and truly consider the logic and history of his arguments?  Friedman says early in the video that "Somebody once wrote...a myth is like an air mattress.  There's nothing in it, but it's wonderfully comfortable, and deflation causes an uncomfortable jolt."  Get ready for a needed jolt concerning these five Myths That Conceal Reality:

1. The Robber Baron Myth
2. The Great Depression Myth
3. The Demand for Government Service Myth 
4. The Free Lunch Myth
5. The Robin Hood Myth.

Default is Last Resort...Not First!

"The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned." from Section 4 of the 14th Amendment.

Believing that not raising the debt ceiling equals default means that you must believe that every penny the government is now spending is absolutely necessary...that not one penny can be cut.  The 14th Amendment spells out that the legally incurred debt of the United States cannot be questioned...in other words, it is a debt and must be paid.  Defaulting on debt, therefore is the last resort...after all other measures have been exhausted.  In this current "crisis," however, no other measures are being even considered or negotiated by our imperial dictator.

Before we default on debt, we should...must...cut other spending to the point where we can service our current debt.  We can reduce or eliminate discretionary spending.  We could eliminate departments of government that are inefficient, out-dated, corrupt, or unconstitutional...which is most of them.  We can stop maintaining national parks...national public radio.  We can pull out of the United Nations and eliminate that obligation.  We can eliminate federal funding for food stamps, welfare, and socialized medicine.  We can do very many other things that do not affect the rightful and constitutional operation of what is meant to be a very limited Federal government.  But we cannot constitutionally default on our debt.

If the President of the United States willfully defaults on our legal debt, he should be immediately removed from office and possibly imprisoned for breaking federal law.  If our Congress allows him to default, the States, from whom the Federal government gets it's power, must rise up and recall and replace them with those who will live up to the oath of defending the Constitution.

REPEAL THE 17th AMENDMENT!

ENFORCE THE 10th AMENDMENT!

Ashamed?

http://www.cato.org/blog/sequestration-cuts-perspective

On his March 21st show, Rush Limbaugh made the following statement: "Ladies and gentlemen, for the first time in my life, I am ashamed of my country." Audio can be found here.

Rush lists as his reason for shame the way we are having "our common sense and intelligence insulted the way it's being." The latest insult to our intelligence for which Rush has gotten so incensed is the maelstrom that is being whipped up over the so-called sequestration cuts to the budget.  As Rush said, it is only "44 billion dollars...that's the total amount of money that will not be spent that was scheduled to be spent this year.  And, in truth, we're gonna spend more this year than we spent last year...There is no real cut below a base-line of zero."  But we are to believe that any cuts at all to the planned spending of our bloated bureaucracy will cause a collapse of all of our necessary government services.  It's as if the line from the movie Ghost Busters is about to come true:

"What he means is Old Testament...real wrath of God type stuff...Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!...Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes...The dead rising from the grave!...Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria! "

All this over a $44 B cut to the baseline budget.  As Larry Kudlow states, "According to the CBO, budget outlays will come down by $44 billion, or one-quarter of 1 percent of GDP (GDP is $15.8 trillion). What's more, that $44 billion outlay reduction is only 1.25 percent of the $3.6 trillion government budget."  And remember, that is 1.25% of the proposed increased budget over last year...so no real cuts.  Kudlow also observed that:

"Federal outlays as a share of GDP peaked at 25.2 percent in fiscal-year 2009, fell to 24.1 percent in 2011, and came in at 22.8 percent in 2012. The long-term historical norm is about 19 percent, so spending is still way too high. But some progress has been made. And if the GOP sticks to its guns and implements the current sequester, a lot more progress will be made, opening the door to a stronger economy."

"In other words, lower spending and limited government are the exact right medicine for free-market prosperity. The sequester cuts are pro-growth. Finish the job, please."

So, should this make Rush ashamed of his country?  Well, it makes me ashamed.  I love this country and what it has stood for in the history of the world.  But there are many things I am ashamed of when it comes to the current state of our country.  I am ashamed that as a whole, through our votes and indifference, we have allowed our country to come under the control of unscrupulous, power hungry statists.  I'm ashamed that the majority of citizens have given up on the founding principles that made this the freest and most prosperous country in the world.  More than that, they don't even know what those principles are, other than a few platitudes, and worse, don't care.

I am ashamed that after once being the most prosperous, productive and innovative country on the face of the planet, we have become a debtor nation, owing more in debt than the entire GDP of our economy.  That we have fallen behind in education and manufacturing. And that those on the government dole nearly exceeds those who make their own way.  I am ashamed that we seem to have become a country of spoiled, irresponsible children with an entitlement mentality who would rather pass their debt to posterity than give up their government freebies.

I am ashamed that after so much progress has been made since the struggles of the civil rights movement of the 1960s, so many have abandoned Dr. King's dream that people would "not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character."  Too many people follow the purveyors of multiculturalism and class warfare who seek to divide and weaken us...benefiting only the purveyors themselves.  I am ashamed that so many voted for a presidential candidate with no qualifications for the job, an unknown and questionable background with very anti-American associations only because of the color of his skin, or because they believed he would deliver the goodies...like free cell phones.

I'm ashamed that our First Amendment rights are under assault from political correctness....that our Second Amendment rights are being attacked so viciously by the Progressive statists...and most people just shrug and say, "What are you gonna do?"  I'm ashamed that no one can seem to recognize any more that if the government can take rights from those you don't like...they can take them from you.

 Yes, I am ashamed of many aspects of the current state of affairs in this great country.  I am ashamed and afraid that my generation and my parent's generation may have allowed the erosion of our liberties to come to a point where they cannot be reclaimed.  That we may be witness to the final demise of the great American experiment in freedom.

What about you?

Aftermath

I'm a bit too shell shocked to go into any real analysis of the election, so I just wanted to get down some of my general thoughts:

• This is now the second presidential election in a row where the Republican party decided it was best to run a "nice" campaign.  They are so kowtowed by the threats of being called racist, that they would not deal directly and firmly with Obama's history and record.  They allowed the Democrats to continue to distort facts with very little response.  This is a complete lack of leadership and the Republican party deserved to lose.
• It seems to me that we have now become a country, as a whole, who is willing to follow Europe down the socialist debt hole toward insolvency.   Alexis de Tocqueville  is credited with saying, “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largess from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years.”  We seem to have reached this point.  We no longer ask what we can do for our country, but want only to know what our country can do for us.  We seem to be willing to sell our legacy for free health care, food stamps and Obama phones.
• The nation has reached a state of shallowness and vapidity from which I fear only truly hard times will shake us.  I saw polling information that said something like 43% of those responding to exit polling said that President Obama's handling of the hurricane Sandy disaster was "very important" to their decision.  This is absolutely astounding...and more than a little distressing...to me.  That someone could, after four years of broken promises, failed policy and nonexistent leadership, see the President acting "presidential" in a brief, staged photo-op after a storm and think that made him a good president is incomprehensible.  The fact that the response of the Federal government has been less than stellar since then means nothing to the Obama groupies with stars in their eyes.
• Half the country seems to be hopelessly invested in class warfare...just like the Russian people were before the communist revolution...or the Germans before the Nazi take over.  This has caused them to draw stark, black and white lines in their minds.  Corporations are always evil and Unions are always good.  Democrats always acts for the good of the people and tell the truth...Republicans are selfish liars who only care about what's best for them and their Corporate overlords.  The rich have stolen everything they have from the poor. They are blind to the fact that absolute power corrupts, absolutely...regardless of party, occupation or income.  They are easily fooled by 20 second sound bites and focus-group tested tag lines.
•  Facts and details mean nothing to many people.  They will not hear the truth that the largess they vote themselves is financed by trillions of dollars of indebtedness to our enemies.  They will not see that the policies of their chosen representatives have caused the financial woes we have been experiencing.   No discussion of corruption...no discussion of the rule of law moves them.  They mock, scoff at and ignore anything that does not agree with the approved party line...and this is on both sides of the political divide.  When confronted with hard issues, they do not answer them...they will only excuse, obfuscate or ignore them...but never deal with them.  If all else fails, they just blame Bush.
• There are no statesmen left...only power hungry politicians. 
• The Republicans are only marginally better than the Democrats...but we were unwilling to move even incrementally toward smaller, less intrusive government.
• I fear for our future.

Debt Limit Looming...Again!

In July of 2011, I did a post with two videos arguing against raising the Federal debt ceiling.  Well, of course they did it...they raised the ceiling.  At that time, we were about to come up against a $14.2 trillion debt limit.  We were told we had to raise the debt ceiling or we would be in default...a lie.  Now, less than a year and a half later, Newsmax,com reports that, "The Obama administration said on Wednesday that the nation would hit the legal limit on its debt near the year's end..."  That's right, now the Central Spending Machine is only "$235 billion below the $16.4 trillion statutory ceiling on the amount it can borrow."  The Debt now exceeds the GDP of the entire country at just over $15 trillion.

In an October 2011 post, when we were a mere $14 trillion in debt, I tried to put the National Debt in Perspective.  In that post I said:

"In 2010, The US government spent more than $413 Billion on interest payments alone. This is more than was spent on The Department of Health and Human Services…The Departments of Transportation, Energy, Veterans Affairs, Housing and Urban Development, Justice, Homeland Security, Agriculture, Commerce…hold on, I’m almost done…The Department of Treasury, Department of Labor and the Small Business Administration …COMBINED. Just to service current debt. And, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, the interest payments on the debt are projected to be $1.1 Trillion a year by 2021, a mere 10 years from now."

I also pointed out that then it would have taken 384 years to pay off the debt if government stopped spending any other money and just paid $100,000,000 a day on the debt.  That time frame has increased by 65 years to 449 years...in a year and a half.

Let me remind you that candidate Obama said of President Bush's addition of $4 trillion to the debt in eight years, "That's irresponsible. It's unpatriotic."  Which I agreed with.  Now Obama will have raised the debt by more than $6 trillion in four years.

The Debt ceiling has been raised 10 times in the last decade, from $5.9 trillion to $16.4 trillion. And now, the Treasury is already calling for another hike, "As we saw last summer, it is important that the debt limit is raised in a timely manner," said Treasury Assistant Secretary Matthew Rutherford.  

Our credit rating has already fallen.  Our spending is out of control.  We cannot continue to raise the debt ceiling.  We cannot continue to pass results of the current government's irresponsibility down to our children, grandchildren ..and great, great grandchildren.  We need to take responsibility.  We need people who do not allow their votes to be bought with government hand-outs.  We need serious adult leadership in government.  We need to reduce the size and scope of government...and we can't put it off.

How Do We Balance The Budget?

Regardless of who wins the upcoming Presidential election, there are hard decisions to be made to avoid a financial disaster in our country.  Federal spending is out of control with no apparent end in site. At the time of this posting the Federal debt exceeds $16 Trillion.  That's:

$16,000,000,000,000

In past posts I have put this kind of debt in perspective (and that was in 2011 when the debt was only $14 Trillion)...I have shown that it is not a revenue problem, but a spending problem.  Raising taxes can't fix it, because you could tax corporations and everyone who is considered rich at 100% and still not have enough money to feed the government's spending habit.

Though everyone knows that we have an unsustainable debt problem...that our deficits continue to grow, government continues to expand programs...and therefore spending.  Not only that, but the government has been actively advertising and recruiting to get more people on the roles of programs like food stamps.  Today the Washington Times reported that "Overall, welfare spending as measured by obligations has grown from $563 billion in fiscal 2008 to $746 billion in fiscal 2011, or a jump of 32 percent."  While welfare programs were cut during the Clinton administration, the Obama administration has been redoubling their efforts to increase this spending.

We are headed in the wrong direction.   I agree with then candidate Obama when he said of the much smaller debt under Bush, "That's irresponsible.  It's unpatriotic." We must first stop the bleeding, and then begin to return to fiscal responsibility and prudence.  This can only happen through a return to the principles of limited and decentralized government.  Come on folks, let's get patriotic again.

Professor Antony Davies has another great video on the issue:

The Sin of Redistribution

Professor Walter E. Williams makes the case that redistribution of wealth by government is theft, and therefore a sin.

Side Effects

I'm always amazed, after hearing the possible side-effects of drugs on the TV commercials, how quick Americans are to swallow pills for nearly any symptom.  I mean, have you paid attention to the legally required fast-talker at the end of any of these commercials?

Symptoms may include drowsiness, dizziness, thoughts of suicide...headaches... diarrhea... nausea...may cause heart damage...liver damage...may result in decreased sex drive.  Call your doctor if you have trouble breathing... sleeping...going to the bathroom..or if it lasts more than four hours.  Don't take this product if you are pregnant...may ever become pregnant...are around anyone who is pregnant.  Rare...but not so rare that we can't mention it...side effects can include hair loss...blindness...stroke...heart attack...or DEATH.

Seriously?  I think, in most cases, I'd rather put up with the original symptoms than risk the kind of side effects I hear on these commercials.  Now, don't get me wrong, I know modern drugs have helped to improve and prolong the lives of millions upon millions of people  Too many times, though, people risk these serious complications for symptoms that are not life threatening, or which could be treated through a lifestyle change...stop smoking...get some exercise...stop eating donuts five times a day...you know, stuff like that.

But, I realize that this is the kind of society we live in now.  Most people want a quick fix.  Just give them a pill that they can pop and let them go on their way.  Many times, they have to take other pills to counteract the side effects of the first pills and before you know it, nobody is sure what is causing which symptom.  I have seen this happen with my own family members, being on so many drugs from different doctors that it causes unforeseen reactions. But, on the whole,we as a society continue to blindly trust our health to the pills and potions dispensed by our doctors...regardless of the possible side effects.  But really, wouldn't most of us be better taking less drugs and understanding all of the possible side effects and interactions of what we do take?

I have also come to realize that this same societal propensity for the quick-fix pill has given us our current state of all-invasive government.  When we see something we don't like, some perceived injustice, immorality, or even just an inconvenience, we too often turn to government for a quick fix.  Over the years, too many have come to trust elected officials as they do doctors...without questioning, trusting that that their council and prescriptions must be what's best.  Unlike doctors though, government's prescriptions -- laws, taxes, regulations, fines, programs and pork -- don't just affect those seeking symptom relief, but spills over onto all of society.

The United States of America was founded by people who rebelled against an overreaching, tyrannical government.  They saw that, as George Washington said, "Government is not reason; it is not eloquent; it is force. Like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master."  These founders sought to decentralize and limit government to it's bare minimum required to allow people to live in a civil society.  The big debate during the Constitutional Convention was between those who wanted a very limited central government (the Federalists) and those who wanted an even more limited government (the Anti-federalists).  They realized that there was a place for government, but that it should be used as a last resort and as little as possible for the over-all health of society.

Today, though, many see government, like pills, as the first recourse for nearly any perceived ill in society...seemingly with absolutely no regard for possible side effects.  The side effects and interactions of government are not rare and are very detrimental to the health of society and liberty.  Let's look at just a couple of examples of side effects of government:

As laws are the main prescription dispensed from the government apothecary, many citizens believe that the main job of their representatives is to churn out new laws.  There are thousands and thousands of laws on the books with new ones being passed every year.  Most of these laws have penalties for those who break them.    Penalties typically consist of fines or incarceration.  Every new law creates potential for people to break them...and therefore new enforcement.  A side effect of so many laws is the high rate of incarceration we have in this country, higher than all of the other developed countries in the world...combined.  With only 4.5% of the world's population, we imprison 23% of the world's prisoners.  Ask yourself, is this because America is such an evil den of criminals?   Are we worse than China...than Russia?  Are we on the verge of some dystopian collapse or is it that the thousands and thousands of laws we have on the books provides huge opportunity for the use of government force?  John Stossel has a great program on the subject called Illegal Everything.

What about the laws that are made to help people?  Surely these are okay, right?  Well, let's look at one of government's attempts to help people.  Back in the 1990s, during the Clinton administration, the government said it was just unfair that everyone wasn't able to own their own home.  President Clinton launched The National Homeownership Strategy which spawned the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) in 1994 to encourage more lending in poor and minority neighborhood (article on details).  To make a long story short, government meddling, through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac caused the banks to offer loans to families that they wouldn't have normally been able to afford.  This meant demand for housing went up, and with increased demand there is increased pricing. Raising prices caused real estate speculation to raise.  Government then strong-armed the banks to increase level of lending and create more favorable terms to allow families to cope with the rising costs.  This all caused the housing bubble that eventually burst and was a major cause of our current economic woes.  The end result is that the very people the law was intended to help were hurt the worst...along with the rest of the country.

Loop holes are a side effect of the interactions of laws.  It seems that no sooner than a law is passed, there are people lobbying congress for relief from aspects of the law that caused new, undesirable symptoms.  Politicians, of course, are more than happy to offer new laws or adjustments for the proper...ah, remunerations to their reelection funds.  The latest example of this is the hundreds (about 1200 to be exact) of companies who lined up and received exemptions from Obamacare.  

If we accept the truism that "power corrupts," it should also be noted that power emboldens.  As we have ceded more of our power to the politicians and trusted them to always make the right decisions for us, they have become like physicians with a god complex.  At least doctors are well trained and tested to perform their roles.  Politicians need only convince people to vote for them to get their jobs.  Being elected does not make them an expert in anything, but they increasingly act as if they know what's best for us and will inflict their will on us whether we agree or not.  The passage of Obamacare is a good recent example of this side effect also.  We were told that we just didn't understand the issues...that we had to pass the law before we could know what was in it.   Over the stringent protests of a majority of the American people, in an act of supreme arrogance, the Democratically controlled Congress, lead by Reid and Pelosi, passed the largest tax hike in the history of the country in the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare.

These are just a few examples of the side effects of an overreaching government.  Multiply this by the thousands and thousands of laws, regulations and policies that are inflicted on us by government.  Don't get me wrong, though I lean very heavily libertarian, I do believe there is a place for government.  I just believe, as the founders did, that it should be dispensed sparingly with great care and with close attention to possible side effects:

Government: CAUTION, possible side effects include incarceration, high taxation, over regulation, bankruptcy, market bubbles, loop holes, corruption, huge debt, deficits and a general loss of liberty.