UPDATE: Just to be clear, when I speak of COVID not being as bad as other flu epidemics, I'm talking about the number of deaths. That is the bottom chart on this page. And, the vast majority of cases, by the reported numbers, worldwide and in the US, are MILD. I understand that this does not mean fun.
While the
statistics, and some very distinguished
experts are saying that COV-19 is not as bad as other, seasonal flu epidemics...that the recovery rate is good...that those at risk of death are basically the same as any other flu seasons (the elderly and those with preexisting medical conditions), why does it seem like politicians, companies, schools, sports teams, etc. are completely in support of the extreme measure of shutting down the economy? That HAS TO MEAN that it really is bad, right?
Well in my opinion, NO! How, then, did this happen? Here’s how
I see it:
RATINGS: The 24/7 news media loves this stuff. They live for panics, catastrophes, and other mayhem, because it brings them big ratings. It makes the individual reporters and talking heads feel important. We have seen this many times before, and they don’t care who they hurt, as long as they get their ratings. That’s the start of it.
This is not all of media, of course. Many in media are just like many in the general public, unfortunately, they just uncritically pass along what they are being told. What makes even most of these followers so bad, though, is that they have to play up what they are repeating, by using grim tones, and looking very serious...for their own ratings.
POLITICS: It is an election year. The press
HATES President Trump. That’s the next part. They have been using this issue, like other panics (real or manufactured), to blame it on Trump. To claim that he is not properly responding to the latest likely apocalypse. You know, like they tried to blame Hurricane Katrina on President Bush.
Then Trump’s political rivals chime in...they have to make the panic big so they can make the blame big. The most important thing to politicians is getting their power...and they, like the press, don’t care who they hurt.
Now the lower tiers of politicians have to get into the act to prove that they are on top of things. So Governors, County Executives, and Mayors, all have to go on TV to show that they are taking
proper actions. They don’t want anyone to blame them for improper response, you know, just in case any of this is true.
Then other institutions...universities, and the schools, heaven forbid one of their students gets the virus, even though it’s milder than other forms of flu for the vast majority of people. They would be crucified by the parents.
SNOWBALL EFFECT: Now, the momentum is large enough that, even though the epidemic is already on the down swing in China, where it began...even though the statistics show it’s not that bad, compared to other common outbreaks...it’s too late. The snowball is rolling down hill too fast to stop it now. Now cities are canceling parades...sports leagues are canceling seasons...businesses are canceling all travel and expanding work from home. Because they don’t want to be seen as uncaring or ineffectual.
The majority of people are now fully invested in the narrative. They call for government to "save them." They want more and more strict actions to make sure they don't get this horrible "novel virus." And the snowball grows...and the snowball moves faster...and the snowball destroys what's in its path.
PERSPECTIVE: Is COVID-19 a pandemic? Yes, of course it is. But that just means that it has spread around the world, not that it is the zombie apocalypse. Have people died? Yes, unfortunately. But this happens EVERY flu season. Can the virus become particularly nasty? Yes...like many strains of Influenza. Should you wash your hands and avoid other sick people? Of course. Should we even take unusual actions to protect the most vulnerable, like those in nursing homes, and those with other high-risk factors? Yes, those people should take precautions and probably practice an appropriate amount of isolation.
But should we panic? Absolutely not. This thing is way overblown. Hospitals are becoming
overwhelmed, not by a horrible pestilence, but by panicked overreaction.
How can I say this? Because the numbers are clear. Looking at the numbers being published from all over the world, the vast majority of those who get the virus have MILD symptoms (94.57%) to those with SERIOUS/CRITICAL (5.43%). Similar in the US (MILD-97.53%; SERIOUS/CRITICAL-2.47%). But, I hear what some of you are saying..."What about Italy, smart guy? It is horrible over there. We could be just weeks...or days behind them." Italy is having a bad time of it, but they have the oldest population on the oldest continent in the world. This is the most vulnerable group. Italy (MILD-94.38%; SERIOUS/CRITICAL-5.62%)
There are, at the writing of this post, 99,908 active cases in the US. 2,463 are SERIOUS/CRITICAL. This is across the whole country. In general, Serious means hospitalized...Critical means in the ICU. We are not given the percentages between these categories.
Certainly there are higher concentrations of active cases in more populous areas, like New York City. But at 2,436 SERIOUS/CRITICAL cases in the whole country, how is it that the US Healthcare System is in danger of being overwhelmed? In fact, hospitals around the country are furloughing people because of the lock-down. They just don't have the patients. If some hospitals are overwhelmed, is it from serious cases, or from panicked people clogging the ERs because they have some kind of symptoms and have been scared by the hype. Would they have even called their doctor this time last year for the same symptoms? We're not being told those statistics, but refer back to 97.53% MILD from above.
Do some searching on the Internet. You will find dire predictions from past flu seasons also. You will also find isolated areas where a hospital or two were being overwhelmed. But we never locked down the country...even with past "novel viruses."
Businesses will lose billions of dollars. The stock market is tanked. Jobs are already being lost...because, like every few years, there’s a new virus strain. This one just happened to take off quickly in a region of China, and we are at peak media frenzy.
Additionally,
this:
"British scientist Neil Ferguson ignited the world’s drastic response to the novel Wuhan coronavirus when he published the bombshell report predicting 2.2 million Americans and more than half a million Brits would be killed. After both the U.S. and U.K. governments effectively shut down their citizens and economies, Ferguson is walking back his doomsday scenarios."
"But after tens of thousands of restaurants, bars, and businesses closed, Ferguson is now retracting his modeling, saying he feels “reasonably confident” our health care system can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in a few weeks. Testifying before the U.K.’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology on Wednesday, Ferguson said he now predicts U.K. deaths from the disease will not exceed 20,000, and could be much lower."
You may disagree, but that’s how I see it. Just my opinion. That and four bucks will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. But, I just don't see a lot of critical thinking around this subject. Those experts who are making the case for more reasonable response and lack of panic are being drowned out by the noise.
"A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it." ~ Agent K, Men In Black
