COVID-19: What about Sweden?

Well, both sides of the COVID-19 debate are pointing to Sweden to make their point.  Some say, "Look at Sweden.  They didn't lock down and they aren't doing any worse than other countries."  Others, as the death toll in Sweden has climbed, are saying, "Well, Sweden is really regretting their irresponsible actions now, aren't they?"

My opinion is that what Sweden shows is that lock-down or not...it doesn't make any real difference.  COVID is acting like viruses do, spreading through a population and having the worse effect on the most vulnerable. This graph below shows Sweden's deaths per million of population (4/26/20) compared to some other countries. All the others have put lock-downs in place. Some are better, some are worse.

Remember, "Flatten the Curve" was never meant to lessen the total number of those who got the virus...or those who died from it.  I don't think a lot of people really understood this.  Flatten the Curve was simply about spreading it out so that the healthcare system was not overwhelmed. The graph below depicts how I believe people saw Flatten the Curve, as opposed what it really meant.  Everyone saw the graphics they put out, so why would I say they don't understand?  Because so many are saying that if we ease the restrictions, more people will die.  Yes, that was always understood.  Some hoped we would have a vaccine in place, but that was never realistic.  We cannot keep the economy shut down for 18 - 24 months.  

The thing that was never considered in the Flatten the Curve model was the damage to the economy, and the potential exponential nature of the collapse as more and more businesses go under as time goes on.  This was a plan put together by people who had healthcare and disease expertise, not by a broader-based group that included economists or other social science types.  

So, if the flattened curve never meant less total deaths, and the numerical models have proven to be way overblown, and lock-down means real financial damage...I say, Sweden had it right and many other countries had it all wrong.  

The real question is, how long to we continue to damage the entire economy to guard a small segment of the economy, namely healthcare...and not all of healthcare, because much of it is also shutdown.  The longer we go, the worse the damage, the longer it takes to recover.  We know what is needed now to support healthcare.  Let's do that instead of collapsing everything else.