As this shows, New York, the fourth most populous state, is an outlier in the country. And, from what we know, it is particularly New York City where the vast majority of reported deaths have happened. The next highest number of deaths, New Jersey, NYC's closest neighbor is only 22% of that of New York. California, the most populous state, is at only 6% that of New York.
Yes, there are sound reasons why New York would have the highest numbers. While the state is the fourth most populous, New York City (8.2 million) is the most populous city in the country, by far. The next closest city, Los Angeles is only 49% the size, and not nearly as dense. But, should New York be this far out of the average?
Maybe, but lets examine some theoretical possibilities. Maybe it is because there are so many flights that come to New York from China, where the virus started. That is why there was so much worry about Washington (state) and California early on, but they are at 4% and 6% of New York deaths. Maybe everyone else has just done a much better job in limiting the spread of the virus? I can't believe this is true.
We know, and I covered in a previous post, that the number of deaths have been very liberally counted...I would say over reported. Could it be that some of the difference is due to a higher level of over-reporting? Maybe. As was reported in The Telegraph, Italy now says that only 12% of the deaths reported as caused by COVID-19, were actually caused by the virus. How much over-reporting in New York? We can't be sure yet, but let's say, because of the density of NYC, that their real numbers are up to 25% of reported. That would be 4282 deaths, still the highest in the country, but seems much more in line. Regardless of the percentages, I think this whole subject needs to be closely examined...starting now. This is very important data to have correct when you are making decisions on locking down the economy.
So, what can we do with this data? Well, if we are going to shut down any economies, maybe we should just do it to New York, and maybe, New York City in particular. If you break down the number of deaths, you will see that:
- 20 states have under 100 deaths
- 32 states are under 200 deaths
- 43 are under 1000
Regardless of how you look at it, New York is an extreme outlier and we should make it a priority to find out why. We should also not make policy for the whole country based on New York. In many types of analysis, you take outliers like this and throw them out because you don't want to make decisions based on the extremes. If we do have an over-reporting issue in a few states, and those states are locked down when others aren't, I would imagine that they would get their numbers corrected quickly.
As I have said before, and I blame this as much on the Trump administration as on the over-hyping of the media and the Democrats, but I repeat myself (as Andrew Klavan says). There are not only two choices...SHUT DOWN or WE ALL DIE. We need much better leadership at all levels than we are getting. There needs to be more subtly in our response. This should not be viewed as one size fits all.
#CriticalThinking #QuestionPower
EDIT 4/27/20: A new study by MIT economist Jeffery Harris suggests that one of the big causes of such high numbers in NYC may be the subway system. This article by Reason.com provides an overview of the findings.
