Nullification: The Rightful Remedy

 

"Each State, in ratifying the Constitution, is considered a sovereign body, independent of all others, and only to be bound by its own voluntary act.  In this relation, then, the new Constitution will, if established, be a Federal, and not a National constitution." - James Madison, "Federalist 39"

The United States (Plural) of America are not a Nation (singular state), but a Confederation, at least as it was originally conceived and was codified in it's founding documents.  Unfortunately, however, we have been taught a false history of this founding for more than the last 100 years.  Today we are told that the States are subordinate to the Federal Government, when this is the opposite of the U. S. Constitution's intent. It was the States, after all,  that formed the central government and gave it a "few and defined" set of powers.  The States that created the Federal government, and not the other way around.

The States need to remember their true place in the scheme of our system.  They are to be a key check against the power of an over-reaching central government.  This was the common understanding among the founding States and was spelled out in 1798 by Thomas Jefferson and James Madison in the Virginia and Kentucky Resolutions:

"[T]his Assembly doth explicitly and peremptorily declare, that it views the powers of the Federal Government, as resulting from the compact, to which the States are parties, as limited by the plain sense and intention of the instrument constituting the compact as no further valid than they are authorized by the grants enumerated in that compact; and that in case of a deliberate, palpable and dangerous exercise of other powers, not granted by the said compact, the States who are parties thereto, have the right, and are duty bound, to interpose, for arresting the progress of the evil, and for maintaining within their respective limits, the authorities, rights and liberties appertaining to them."  ~ The Virginia Resolution of 1798 

“Where powers are assumed which have not been delegated, a nullification of the act is the rightful remedy: that every State has a natural right in cases not within the compact, (casus non fœderis) to nullify of their own authority all assumptions of power by others within their limits: that without this right, they would be under the dominion, absolute and unlimited, of whosoever might exercise this right of judgment for them.” – The Kentucky Resolution of 1798

It is time, and well past time, for States to reclaim and reassert their sovereignty!  A key method of doing this is by directly nullifying unconstitutional Federal laws and policies.

Here are some videos on the subject of Nullification by Dr. Thomas E. Woods:

This one is only just under 3 minutes...

If that video served to whet your appetite for more information, here is a longer, more in-depth video:

And, if you would like to poke some fun at the mainstream mass of uneducated zombies who none-the-less feel empowered to spew the same old talking points on nullification, here is Interview with a Zombie:

Dr. Woods' book, Nulification: How to Resist Federal Tyranny in the 21st Century

For more reading on the balance of power proscribed in the Constitution, here is a compilation of previous blog posts on the subject: The Federalism Series - A Primer

China's Strangle Hold on High-Tech Manufacturing

 

Why is China so dominate in high-tech manufacturing?  Is it because of cheap labor?  No.  It is because the West has ceded the Rare Earths market to them, and now they demand that manufacturing gets done in their country. Rare Earth elements are vital in the creation of high-tech electronics from smart phones and computers to defense industry.

The United States and other western powers must rebuild our Rare Earths capabilities, or be held hostage to the whims of the communist government of China.

Here are two videos that lay out the issues:

The False Flag of Socialism

I believe that there has never been a Socialist government...or Communist, for that matter. Communism and Socialism are just false flag operations. They offer the pretty promises to take care of the "regular people," to make things "fair," to destroy the dragon of the day (Robber Barons, The 1%, Racists, etc.). But, these systems have never, and can never work. Why? It is quite simple: people will not willingly work hard to take care of other people's families. I'm not talking about voluntary charity, but having the fruits of their labor taken for the "common good." 

The only way to make such a system work is there must be force applied by someone, some body to enforce this wonderful vision. This becomes the Central Planners...The "Experts," "Technocrats," "Intellectuals," or the "Educated."  These are the ones who presume to know best what you need to do, and how you need to live.  And, since they are the deciders, they always place themselves above the system's requirements...they always use the force to accrue power to themselves. To get this power in the beginning, though, they must paint themselves as righteous crusaders of the people...but it is a lie. It is all about central power. All of these governments are "Statist" in reality...but you're not supposed to look behind the curtain.

COVID: 7-13-20 Update

They continue to hype the virus.

Let me get this out of the way...again.  Yes...it's a real virus.  No...I don't think the virus is a hoax.  Yes...it can be bad.

But they are hyping the numbers!  Two things can be true at the same time. It is real, and they are hyping the numbers.  And it is not just some guy on the Internet saying so.  It is also a lot of medical experts who are just being ignored by the mainstream, corporate media, if you care to find them.  It is also their own numbers, if you look at them as a whole.

We were originally told that we needed to temporarily (2 weeks or so) lock down to "Flatten the Curve" and avoid over-running the healthcare system.  We did that.  No hospitals are, or maybe ever were, overrun.  Now, it seems, the goal is to eliminate all new cases.  This was never an expectation in the beginning, and it likely isn't possible.  But, I believe that because the general populace was so compliant due to fear, they continue to exert their control.

Now the press is constantly telling us that there are record levels of new cases.  Because some of us have not been compliant, they say, we are all now paying the price with new outbreaks that threaten to doom us all.

A quick look at the trends, though, shows the truth.  Yes there are more confirmed cases, but not more serious cases or deaths.  This is due to what many have been trying to say, we have record numbers of tests being conducted.

I have been tracking the numbers since late March.  What they show is that while the number of confirmed cases continue to rise, the VAST majority are still mild.

Source:  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This graph shows the cases of Serious/Critical vs. Mild cases as percentages.  Notice, the percentages have been almost flat over this whole period.

ALMOST flat...If you zoom in on the Serious/Critical, cases, you can see that this percentage has dropped from a high of 2.85% to less that 1% (0.92%).

Now, some people will say, "Yes, but that number is just a percentage of the total.  What about the real numbers of Serious/Critical?"  And, this would be a very good point.  The fact is that this number has leveled out quite a bit as you can see in the next chart.

But, remember, Serious and Critical are really two different categories.  Serious means hospitalization.  Critical means ICU-type care.  We do not know the breakdown between these two categories, but we do know how the number of new deaths from COVID are progressing, as can be seen in the next chart.

Keep in mind that these numbers represent the over-reporting of COVID deaths.  They have admitted over and over that they count dying WITH a positive COVID test as dying FROM COVID, even if the true cause of death is something else entirely.

So...content is important to understanding the real danger...to understanding the appropriate level of control exercised by government.  It is important to know, but it is not being given to us.  This leads me to ask why.  What are the motives of those who only provide the most scary numbers?  Why did they switch from reporting hospitalizations and deaths, to reporting "record new cases?"  I have my theory, but you have to ask yourself this question.  Have an open mind and let yourself consider that maybe there are other motivations other than the well-being of the citizenry.

COVID-19: What about Sweden?

Well, both sides of the COVID-19 debate are pointing to Sweden to make their point.  Some say, "Look at Sweden.  They didn't lock down and they aren't doing any worse than other countries."  Others, as the death toll in Sweden has climbed, are saying, "Well, Sweden is really regretting their irresponsible actions now, aren't they?"

My opinion is that what Sweden shows is that lock-down or not...it doesn't make any real difference.  COVID is acting like viruses do, spreading through a population and having the worse effect on the most vulnerable. This graph below shows Sweden's deaths per million of population (4/26/20) compared to some other countries. All the others have put lock-downs in place. Some are better, some are worse.

Remember, "Flatten the Curve" was never meant to lessen the total number of those who got the virus...or those who died from it.  I don't think a lot of people really understood this.  Flatten the Curve was simply about spreading it out so that the healthcare system was not overwhelmed. The graph below depicts how I believe people saw Flatten the Curve, as opposed what it really meant.  Everyone saw the graphics they put out, so why would I say they don't understand?  Because so many are saying that if we ease the restrictions, more people will die.  Yes, that was always understood.  Some hoped we would have a vaccine in place, but that was never realistic.  We cannot keep the economy shut down for 18 - 24 months.  

The thing that was never considered in the Flatten the Curve model was the damage to the economy, and the potential exponential nature of the collapse as more and more businesses go under as time goes on.  This was a plan put together by people who had healthcare and disease expertise, not by a broader-based group that included economists or other social science types.  

So, if the flattened curve never meant less total deaths, and the numerical models have proven to be way overblown, and lock-down means real financial damage...I say, Sweden had it right and many other countries had it all wrong.  

The real question is, how long to we continue to damage the entire economy to guard a small segment of the economy, namely healthcare...and not all of healthcare, because much of it is also shutdown.  The longer we go, the worse the damage, the longer it takes to recover.  We know what is needed now to support healthcare.  Let's do that instead of collapsing everything else.

COVID-19: The New York Problem

I'm not sure exactly what to make of the chart below, but it is very interesting.  This chart shows the total number of reported COVID-19 deaths in all fifty states plus D.C., sorted by population (as of 4/17/20).

As this shows, New York, the fourth most populous state, is an outlier in the country.  And, from what we know, it is particularly New York City where the vast majority of reported deaths have happened.  The next highest number of deaths, New Jersey, NYC's closest neighbor is only 22% of that of New York.  California, the most populous state, is at only 6% that of New York.

Yes, there are sound reasons why New York would have the highest numbers.  While the state is the fourth most populous, New York City (8.2 million) is the most populous city in the country, by far.  The next closest city, Los Angeles is only 49% the size, and not nearly as dense.  But, should New York be this far out of the average?  

Maybe, but lets examine some theoretical possibilities.  Maybe it is because there are so many flights that come to New York from China, where the virus started.  That is why there was so much worry about Washington (state) and California early on, but they are at 4% and 6% of New York deaths.  Maybe everyone else has just done a much better job in limiting the spread of the virus?  I can't believe this is true.

We know, and I covered in a previous post, that the number of deaths have been very liberally counted...I would say over reported.  Could it be that some of the difference is due to a higher level of over-reporting?  Maybe.  As was reported in The Telegraph, Italy now says that only 12% of the deaths reported as caused by COVID-19, were actually caused by the virus.  How much over-reporting in New York?  We can't be sure yet, but let's say, because of the density of  NYC, that their real numbers are up to 25% of reported.  That would be 4282 deaths, still the highest in the country, but seems much more in line.  Regardless of the percentages, I think this whole subject needs to be closely examined...starting now.  This is very important data to have correct when you are making decisions on locking down the economy.

So, what can we do with this data?  Well, if we are going to shut down any economies, maybe we should just do it to New York, and maybe, New York City in particular.   If you break down the number of deaths, you will see that:

• 20 states have under 100 deaths
• 32 states are under 200 deaths
• 43 are under 1000

But maybe this isn't the right metric, due to the relative populations.  So what if we look at Deaths/1M Population?  This is a much better way to view the effect on a given population. If we look at it this way, 43 states are under 100 deaths per million in population.  New York is at 873 per million.  So maybe we lock down the states that are over 100 deaths per million in population?

Regardless of how you look at it, New York is an extreme outlier and we should make it a priority to find out why.  We should also not make policy for the whole country based on New York.  In many types of analysis, you take outliers like this and throw them out because you don't want to make decisions based on the extremes.  If we do have an over-reporting issue in a few states, and those states are locked down when others aren't, I would imagine that they would get their numbers corrected quickly.

As I have said before, and I blame this as much on the Trump administration as on the over-hyping of the media and the Democrats, but I repeat myself (as Andrew Klavan says).  There are not only two choices...SHUT DOWN or WE ALL DIE.  We need much better leadership at all levels than we are getting.  There needs to be more subtly in our response.  This should not be viewed as one size fits all.

#CriticalThinking  #QuestionPower 

EDIT 4/27/20: A new study by MIT economist Jeffery Harris suggests that one of the big causes of such high numbers in NYC may be the subway system.  This article by Reason.com provides an overview of the findings.

US COVID-19 Deaths Surpass Influenza...Or Has It?

So, COVID-19 deaths have exceeded those of what we have been seeing for seasonal influenza...just as the "experts" told us they would.  But, have they really?

It has been admitted that, as Dr. Deborah Birx said in a recent press conference, "...in this country, we've taken a very liberal approach to mortality."  She went on to say,  "There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition and let's say the virus caused you to go to the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem. Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death."  She then concludes that, "The intent is right now if someone dies with COVID-19, we're counting that as a COVID-19 death."

Notice the difference.  If you died with COVID-19, they are counting it as you died from COVID-19.  And, I will remind you, that even with the "very liberal" accounting of COVID-19 deaths, it is still far lower than pneumonia deaths (42,560 in the first 12 weeks of 2020 alone).

But there is also more to this story.  Dr. Birx talks about the virus "causing" you to go to the ICU, but there are reports coming out, like this one on Fox News from Dr. Scott Jensen, that, unlike at other times, doctors are being encouraged to count deaths of nearly any kind as a COVID-19 death if they have been confirmed to have have the virus.  Dr. Jensen said, "If I have a patient died a month ago, had fever, a cough, and died after three days and had maybe been an elderly, fragile individual, and there happened to be an influenza epidemic around our community, I wouldn't put influenza on the death certificate, and I've never been encouraged to do so.  I would put, probably, respiratory arrest would be the top line and the underlying cause disease would be pneumonia, and in the contributing factors I might well put emphysema or congestive heart failure.  But, I would never put influenza down as the underlying cause of death, and yet, that's what we're being asked to do here."

Much has also been made of the bad time that Italy has had with the virus.  In fact the US and other countries have been using numbers from Italy to model the possible spread and lethality of the epidemic.

But, is Italy the proper case to base a model on.  It has been widely discussed that Italy's demographics skew significantly toward the older population, which are the most vulnerable to COVID-19.  As reported in The Telegraph:

According to Prof Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health, the country’s mortality rate is far higher due to demographics - the nation has the second oldest population worldwide - and the manner in which hospitals record deaths. 

“The age of our patients in hospitals is substantially older - the median is 67, while in China it was 46,” Prof Ricciardi says. “So essentially the age distribution of our patients is squeezed to an older age and this is substantial in increasing the lethality.” 

But, beyond the demographic issues with Italy, we now learn that Italy too used a very liberal accounting for COVID-19 deaths.  From The Telegraph again:

“The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.

“On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says. 

Read it again!  "only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus."  12 percent...TWELVE...the number of deaths times 0.12.  Okay, that's significant!

So, what would the chart look like if the US over-reporting was in the same range as Italy?  And remember what Dr. Birx said above, "very liberal."  It would look something like this:

This is much more in-line with what some experts on epidemics were predicting.

The point I will make is that if we are to take such drastic steps...steps that are causing massive unemployment like we have never seen...we have to be more sure of the numbers.  The devastation to the economy in the long-term could likely be much worse than the short-term affects of the coronavirus pandemic.

I am not going offer conjecture on all the reasons for over-estimating the numbers so massively.  I also admit that some number of the cases where COVID-19 was not the cause of death, it may have been a contributing factor.  The point I will make is that if we are to take such drastic steps...steps that are causing massive unemployment like we have never seen...we have to be more sure of the numbers.  The devastation to the economy in the long-term could likely be much worse than the short-term affects of the coronavirus pandemic.

These are the kinds of results you get when you allow "government experts," of any kind, to make extremely consequential decisions for the whole country.  Remember that their initial models that caused the panic to begin with...the ones that launched the police-state lock-downs...were that 2 million Americans could die.  They have continued to back down those predictions, but their prescription has remained the same, and has gotten worse as more and more jurisdictions have inflicted stricter "social distancing" mandates on their citizens.

Fauci, Birix and the other CDC experts are all working from mathematical modeling that, as Fauci admits "are only as good as the assumptions you put into the model."  But, while he claims to not pay too close attention to the models, these were the numbers that have been reported that caused panic and were, at least in the early days, used to justify the lock-downs.

But these experts are only expert in one, narrow area.  They are not economists...they don't have any real concern for economic realities.  Their concern has always been expressed about "overwhelming the healthcare system."  In addition, the experts in charge...the ones who have the current levers of power...are allowed to ignore other, contradicting expert opinions, like Stanford University epidemiologist John Ioannidis and others.  Some say that "flattening the curve" only prolongs the problem, and therefore the economic affects, by delaying the acquisition of "herd immunity" in the population.  But, they only allow voices that agree with their assessments, even as they are shown to be wrong.

A sample epidemic curve, with and without social distancing. 

Image credit: Johannes Kalliauer/ CC BY-SA 4.0)

 Notice in the diagram above, "flattening the curve" may help the health care system, but it drags the over-all problem out over a much longer time horizon.  This will, therefore cause longer-term negative effects to the economy.  The longer a business is kept from pursuing revenue, the less likely it will be able to survive...the higher the number of long-term unemployed and financial damage.  But, as you can see from the diagram, the total number of deaths is likely to be nearly the same.

While we know that the defense of the "flattening the curve" approach is to guard against overwhelming the healthcare system, have we really critically questioned the assumptions.  Yes, some areas are being hit hard, New York City, in particular, but nothing like what was predicted.  Remember, Governor Anthony Cuomo's exasperated question "What am I going to do with four hundred ventilators when I need thirty thousands?"  Well, it hasn't turned out that they have needed anywhere near that number.  But even if it had been worse than it is, we have the vast majority of the rest of the country with excess healthcare sitting idle with employees being furloughed..  Surely we could have made this work in the short term to get through this faster.

When asked about when we can expect to open the country back up, Dr. Fauci said. "I think reopening it is not going to be like a light switch that you switch on or off.  Because, if you look at throughout the country, it's a large country and the outbreaks are really quite different, depending on where you are."  This seems to make some sense, but the question I have is why did we have to switch the country off all at one time?   As Fauci continued, "New York, New Jersey area is very different from now what we've seen in Washington State and in California, in which there was the threat of a real big spike, but it really didn't occur and is at that low level."

In fact, it is true that areas in the country are very different.  The following chart shows the number of deaths (reportedly) caused by COVID-19 per State as of April 10th.

 So, from this chart, we have to ask, why do we have nearly the entire country on lock-down?  The answer is simple...FEAR.  Fear started and perpetuated by the so-called experts, based on faulty mathematical modeling.  Fear of the disease...but also fear that politicians of all stripes might be held responsible for not doing enough.  Fear that was not tempered in any way by the opinion of other "experts" in the same or other areas.  I've laid out what I think some of the other causes have been in a previous post.

The arguments we keep seeing are based on a false dichotomy.  There are not only two choices: Total shut-down...OR...we're all going to die!  There are many, many choices in between.  As we get through this current scare and come out the other side, I hope, and believe that the economy will rebound.  There is no-doubt pent up demand that is being held back by the lock-down.  But, how many of your favorite businesses will survive it?  How many people will be out of jobs?  The longer this goes, the worse those effects will be.  Let's start reversing this lock-down anywhere we can...NOW.

We cannot retain our liberty if we uncritically accept anything that comes from so-called government experts.

COVID-19 Update: 4/4/20

Perspective: The Worldometer site, the one that has been publishing the COVID-19 statistics, added one yesterday - Tests/1M Population.

As of the close of the day yesterday 2,110/1M Population had been tested in the US. With a population of ~329,671,200. That means that approximately 695,606 tests have been done in the US. That is 0.21% of the population.

It also means that only 39.84% of those tested have actually shown to be positive. This number is likely skewed high, and maybe significantly so, for general population exposure since most of the testing is being done for people who have symptoms or who suspect that they have been exposed.  Many who think they may have it are being denied testing and just told to self-quarantine, because their symptoms are not serious enough.

What does this all mean? Well, all the figures being touted for mortality rate, for example, are just guesses based on extrapolations from a very small sample of the population.

It also means that the Total Number of Cases figure means almost nothing. This is just a factor of how many who have been tested. But the news media keeps hyping this number. "The US has now surpassed Italy in the number of cases!" So what? The more significant number is how many have died in proportion to the population. Italy is at about 243 total deaths/1M in population. The US is at about 22 per 1M.

Chart as of close of day 4/3/20

I believe this is why the CDC does not publish "Mortality Rate" numbers for flu and pneumonia. There's no way to know unless they actually test a much larger sample of population.

Let's also remember that only between 2.1% and 2.6% of those known Active Cases are Serious (hospitalized) or Critical (ICU)... and only a percentage of Critical (I heard one doctor say about half) are in need of ventilators at some point.

Let's just all keep perspective and look past the hype to try to understand what the true numbers are...what they really mean...and what they don't tell us.

COVID-19 Update: 3-31-20

The reason I post these updates is to help keep COVID-19 in perspective.  There is an increasing number of experts and observers coming out who are questioning the need for such economy-crushing measures to  fight a virus who's death toll is lower than seasonal influenza.  Then there is this video, where a doctor on the front lines of the outbreak in New York City says that says that avoiding the disease is easy.  Dr. Price says:

“The ways that you get this is the transmission of the virus almost exclusively from your hands to your face, from your hands to your face and inside your eyes, into your nose or into your mouth...”

“Become a hand Nazi. Everything you know about your hands, just keep it clean and you will not get this disease...”

“That is incredibly empowering. The thing that makes me smile a little bit is I actually know now that I won’t get this disease because I know how to protect myself...”

With President Trump's declaration yesterday that the lock-downs will remain in place until at least April 30th, it is probably too late to save the economy from serious recession, but maybe we can learn a lesson about perspective and critical thinking from this debacle. 

Now to the numbers:

Looking at the closing numbers from 3/30/20, the ratios are staying pretty constant.

The percentage of active cases that are Serious/Critical are hovering between 2.1% and 2.6%, which means >97% are categorized "Mild."  This does not mean fun, but it means that there is no need for hospitalization.  These cases can be treated at home with normal flu type treatments of rest, hydration and treatment for fevers.

Compare these numbers to Influenza deaths in the chart below.  2020 Influenza deaths are through week 11 of the year.

Anatomy of a Panic

UPDATE:  Just to be clear, when I speak of COVID not being as bad as other flu epidemics, I'm talking about the number of deaths.  That is the bottom chart on this page.  And, the vast majority of cases, by the reported numbers, worldwide and in the US, are MILD.  I understand that this does not mean fun.

While the statistics, and some very distinguished experts are saying that COV-19 is not as bad as other, seasonal flu epidemics...that the recovery rate is good...that those at risk of death are basically the same as any other flu seasons (the elderly and those with preexisting medical conditions), why does it seem like politicians, companies, schools, sports teams, etc. are completely in support of the extreme measure of shutting down the economy?  That HAS TO MEAN that it really is bad, right?

Well in my opinion, NO!  How, then, did this happen?  Here’s how I see it:

RATINGS:  The 24/7 news media loves this stuff.  They live for panics, catastrophes, and other mayhem, because it brings them big ratings.  It makes the individual reporters and talking heads feel important.  We have seen this many times before, and they don’t care who they hurt, as long as they get their ratings.  That’s the start of it.

This is not all of media, of course.  Many in media are just like many in the general public, unfortunately, they just uncritically pass along what they are being told.  What makes even most of these followers so bad, though, is that they have to play up what they are repeating, by using grim tones, and looking very serious...for their own ratings.

POLITICS: It is an election year.  The press HATES President Trump.  That’s the next part.  They have been using this issue, like other panics (real or manufactured), to blame it on Trump.  To claim that he is not properly responding to the latest likely apocalypse.  You know, like they tried to blame Hurricane Katrina on President Bush.

Then Trump’s political rivals chime in...they have to make the panic big so they can make the blame big.  The most important thing to politicians is getting their power...and they, like the press, don’t care who they hurt.

Now the lower tiers of politicians have to get into the act to prove that they are on top of things.  So Governors, County Executives, and Mayors, all have to go on TV to show that they are taking proper actions. They don’t want anyone to blame them for improper response, you know, just in case any of this is true.

Then other institutions...universities, and the schools, heaven forbid one of their students gets the virus, even though it’s milder than other forms of flu for the vast majority of people.  They would be crucified by the parents.

SNOWBALL EFFECT:  Now, the momentum is large enough that, even though the epidemic is already on the down swing in China, where it began...even though the statistics show it’s not that bad, compared to other common outbreaks...it’s too late.  The snowball is rolling down hill too fast to stop it now.  Now cities are canceling parades...sports leagues are canceling seasons...businesses are canceling all travel and expanding work from home.  Because they don’t want to be seen as uncaring or ineffectual.

The majority of people are now fully invested in the narrative.  They call for government to "save them."  They want more and more strict actions to make sure they don't get this horrible "novel virus."  And the snowball grows...and the snowball moves faster...and the snowball destroys what's in its path.

PERSPECTIVE: Is COVID-19 a pandemic?  Yes, of course it is.  But that just means that it has spread around the world, not that it is the zombie apocalypse.  Have people died?  Yes, unfortunately.  But this happens EVERY flu season.  Can the virus become particularly nasty? Yes...like many strains of Influenza.  Should you wash your hands and avoid other sick people?  Of course.  Should we even take unusual actions to protect the most vulnerable, like those in nursing homes, and those with other high-risk factors?  Yes, those people should take precautions and probably practice an appropriate amount of isolation.

But should we panic?  Absolutely not.  This thing is way overblown.  Hospitals are becoming
overwhelmed, not by a horrible pestilence, but by panicked overreaction.

How can I say this?  Because the numbers are clear.  Looking at the numbers being published from all over the world, the vast majority of those who get the virus have MILD symptoms (94.57%) to those with SERIOUS/CRITICAL (5.43%).  Similar in the US (MILD-97.53%; SERIOUS/CRITICAL-2.47%).  But, I hear what some of you are saying..."What about Italy, smart guy?  It is horrible over there.  We could be just weeks...or days behind them."  Italy is having a bad time of it, but they have the oldest population on the oldest continent in the world.  This is the most vulnerable group.   Italy (MILD-94.38%; SERIOUS/CRITICAL-5.62%)

There are, at the writing of this post, 99,908 active cases in the US.  2,463 are SERIOUS/CRITICAL.  This is across the whole country.  In general, Serious means hospitalized...Critical means in the ICU.  We are not given the percentages between these categories.

Certainly there are higher concentrations of active cases in more populous areas, like New York City.  But at 2,436  SERIOUS/CRITICAL cases in the whole country, how is it that the US Healthcare System is in danger of being overwhelmed?  In fact, hospitals around the country are furloughing people because of the lock-down.  They just don't have the patients.  If some hospitals are overwhelmed, is it from serious cases, or from panicked people clogging the ERs because they have some kind of symptoms and have been scared by the hype.  Would they have even called their doctor this time last year for the same symptoms?  We're not being told those statistics, but refer back to 97.53% MILD from above.

Do some searching on the Internet.  You will find dire predictions from past flu seasons also.  You will also find isolated areas where a hospital or two were being overwhelmed.  But we never locked down the country...even with past "novel viruses."

Businesses will lose billions of dollars.  The stock market is tanked.  Jobs are already being lost...because, like every few years, there’s a new virus strain.  This one just happened to take off quickly in a region of China, and we are at peak media frenzy.

Additionally, this:

"British scientist Neil Ferguson ignited the world’s drastic response to the novel Wuhan coronavirus when he published the bombshell report predicting 2.2 million Americans and more than half a million Brits would be killed. After both the U.S. and U.K. governments effectively shut down their citizens and economies, Ferguson is walking back his doomsday scenarios."

"But after tens of thousands of restaurants, bars, and businesses closed, Ferguson is now retracting his modeling, saying he feels “reasonably confident” our health care system can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in a few weeks. Testifying before the U.K.’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology on Wednesday, Ferguson said he now predicts U.K. deaths from the disease will not exceed 20,000, and could be much lower."

You may disagree, but that’s how I see it. Just my opinion.  That and four bucks will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks.  But, I just don't see a lot of critical thinking around this subject.  Those experts who are making the case for more reasonable response and lack of panic are being drowned out by the noise.

"A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it." ~ Agent K, Men In Black

COVID-19 Update: 3-27-20

Not much change in the proportions.  This is the kind of comparisons we need to keep this in prospective.

2020 Influenza totals are for only the first 10 weeks of the year.

COVID-19 Update: 3-25-20

Okay, tell me why our health care system is supposedly being overwhelmed, if not for panic?  With only 1,175 "Serious, Critical" active cases in the US, I don't know for sure, but my guess is that if all of these were in New York City, they would probably be able to handle them...if not in the city, I'm sure in the Greater New York area.

Even across the world, it is tracking with similar proportions.  Although, the ratio of total cases to active cases seems to be wider.  Does this mean we have seen the world-wide peak?  Time will tell on this, I guess.  But, if we have, it would track very similarly to Influenza time frames.

COVID-19 Update: 3/24/2020

2020 Influenza numbers are for the first 10 weeks of the year only.  COVID-19 numbers are total. 

COVID-19 in Perspective

I have been making the case that the COVID-19 Pandemic should be kept in perspective with other epidemics.  I spent some time looking at statistics and here's what I've found.

While many people are claiming that COVID-19 is particularly devastating, if you compare it to Influenza, it clearly is not even close.  I pulled the current statistics for COVID-19 here, and downloaded a table from the CDC here to get the summary in the tables below.

As these statistics show, Influenza causes way more deaths every year in the US than COVID-19 has any signs of showing so far.  In fact the COVID-19 death rate in the US is currently only about 0.15 deaths per 100,000 in population.  This compared to Influenza in just the first 10 weeks of 2020 where the rate is 1.31 per 100,000.

Additionally, if you look at death rates for Influenza in 2018, you see that these rates jumped all the way up to 4.43 per 100,000.  With 14,510 deaths that year, it was nearly as high as the current COVID-ID deaths world-wide.  I doubt that many outside the health field even remember that 2018 was a particularly bad year for the flu.

While it is relatively early in the COVID-19 cycle, the numbers seem quite low in comparison.  Remember, the 2020 Influenza  deaths are for only the first ten weeks of the year, where the COVID numbers are total for this outbreak.

We are, at the time of this writing, in week 13 of 2020.  The COVID numbers will surely go up...but so will the Influenza numbers.  According to the CDC table, the Influenza deaths start dropping off rather quickly from here...bottoming out at about week 21 - 23.  Many expect COVID-19 to follow a similar trajectory. Chart below shows Influenza deaths.  Notice the large spike in 2018.

With numbers like these, does it make sense to be taking the extreme measures we now are seeing?  Steps that by all accounts, Republican and Democrats agree, will certainly cause significant damage to the economy. Estimates are that the recession could be significantly worse than we had in 2008, with 20% unemployment, and cost over $1T in government bailouts.  What happens next year, or the year after when another bad flu season comes along?  Can we afford these kinds of actions from our overzealous politicians?

This data was easily found.  It is from reputable sources.  Don't take my word, look for yourselves.

“Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.” ~  Benjamin Franklin